{"id":1533,"date":"2017-07-20T02:58:39","date_gmt":"2017-07-20T02:58:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/threeworlds.campaignstrategy.org\/?p=1533"},"modified":"2017-07-22T00:32:50","modified_gmt":"2017-07-22T00:32:50","slug":"oh-jeremy-corbyn-will-you-chose-the-old-or-the-young","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/threeworlds.campaignstrategy.org\/?p=1533","title":{"rendered":"\u201cOh Jeremy Corbyn\u201d \u2013 Will You Chose The Old or The Young ?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Photo: ParisMatch, Jeremy Corbyn \u00e0 Glastonbury. Dylan Martinez\/Reuters<\/a><\/em><\/h5>\n

[download this blog as a pdf<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Can the UK avoid Brexit ?\u00a0 While nearly all attention focuses on Britain\u2019s beleagured Prime Minister Theresa May, the person who could most easily swing it is the newly popular Labour Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn. \u00a0Whether he does or not, may come down to making a choice he\u2019d rather not make, between the old and the young, between the past and the future.<\/h2>\n

Why so ?\u00a0 Because any of the more plausible routes to Brexit Exit require a significant shift in public opinion, dignified by many MPs after the 2016 EU Referendum, as \u2018the Will of the People\u2019.\u00a0 Corbyn is in a position to deliver that shift in mood, whereas May is not.\u00a0 This blog explores why Corbyn probably does not want to do that but he might have to.<\/h2>\n

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The Public Mood Is the Will Of The People<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Mood is pivotal because political credibility increasingly demands staying on the right side of it.\u00a0 Mood captured in opinion polling (see more later) is an expression of the public will.\u00a0 It\u2019s affected by perceptions of events and options on offer, and politicians still have some power to shape those options.\u00a0 As all pollsters and politicians know, people tend not to back options that do not look credible, for instance if nobody in a position of influence seems to back them (\u2018value expectancy\u2019 theory), and cannot back options that are not put to them.<\/p>\n

There are quite a few possible variants of \u2018Brexit\u2019<\/a>, such as whether it involves breaking all ties with the EU, or remaining somehow \u2018inside\u2019 the Single Market, the Customs Union, within the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice and within arrangements on freedom of movement, and to what extent, after otherwise \u2018leaving\u2019 the EU, the UK accepts EU rules in order to get trade benefits.<\/p>\n

Since the June 2016 Referendum, and especially since the June 2017 General Election, UK public opinion has moved steadily towards the more connected, \u2018softer\u2019 forms of Brexit.\u00a0 May\u2019s enfeebled government has started giving way on its negotiating \u2018red lines<\/a>\u2019, and is internally split<\/a> over a range of harder-softer Brexit issues, and the period of any \u2018transitional arrangements\u2019 after \u2018Brexit\u2019.\u00a0 Brexit no longer just means Brexit but degrees of Brexit.<\/p>\n

It is not political \u2018rocket science\u2019 to see that this unbundling could lead to Brexit never happening at all, something which outsiders like LibDem Vince Cable<\/a> and ex PM Tony Blair<\/a> have talked about but which the Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet have avoided mentioning.\u00a0 Perhaps most importantly, a majority now favour a new referendum (Second Referendum)<\/a> to give the public a final say on whether or not to accept any \u2018deal\u2019 that results from the talks with Brussels.\u00a0 That would of course be a second formalised measure of the \u2018Will of the People\u2019.<\/p>\n

Corbyn could greatly influence all that but the one option which is hardly mentioned, is exiting Brexit, and he is in a uniquely powerful position to create that option, which is probably one reason why he never talks about it.<\/p>\n

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Why Is Corbyn so Silent on Brexit ?<\/strong><\/p>\n

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The most obvious reasons for Corbyn\u2019s carefully studied ambiguity over Brexit are that his heart was never really in staying in the EU, his own party is split over the EU, and that his political base is split between Leave and Remain (see more, later).<\/p>\n

He and his advisers may also fear that raising the possibility of staying in the EU would enrage the Brexiteers, and might revitalise UKIP.\u00a0 Far better, they may reason, to lie low, \u00a0let May sail on to become entangled in impossible politics, hit the sands of intractable negotiations, and take the cannon fire from Brexiteers, as she is forced to jettison one part of their project after another. \u00a0To be, as one writer put it, \u2018Brexit Bystanders\u2019<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Even when launching his General Election campaign, Corbyn dismissed Brexit as \u2018settled<\/a>\u2019.\u00a0 Yet this may not be a strategy which stands much exposure.\u00a0 The problem for Corbyn is that his new found political success, popularity and credibility is substantially built on the votes of Remainers, and especially, for they are one and the same, the young.\u00a0 He faces many \u201cwhat-if\u2019s\u201d.<\/p>\n

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  • What if, as is quite possible, May resigns ? If she is then replaced by someone who has \u2018read the runes\u2019 and sees that Brexit looks terminally disastrous, she or he might opt to \u2018revisit\u2019 it, perhaps arguing that as the EU has now in some way reformed, it is no longer the same beast we rejected so narrowly in 2016.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0A suitable chastened and newly sensible Boris Johnson for instance ?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

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      \n
    • What if, as is also possible, something happens to erode support for Brexit among those who voted Leave ? If a crisis in the NHS for instance, comes to be seen as caused by the Brexit process (eg involving recruitment<\/a> from the EU).\u00a0 This only seems impossibly unlikely because it is not being talked about and a crystallising event has not happened.\u00a0\u00a0 Recent values-segmented research by Pat Dade from CDSM shows that the Conservative vote in 2016 became spectacularly entrenched within the Settlers, the self same people who formed the core support for Leave. \u00a0Few of these people voted Labour in 2017 (see more below) but they may have been crucial in some of Labour\u2019s \u2018traditional\u2019 seats.\u00a0 \u00a0The NHS is a high priority for these security driven folk.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

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      • Then what if, the many Remainer Pioneers who voted for Corbyn, were to wake up to the fact that he could lead the country away from Brexit but he is not ? That he seems to have taken the young for granted as \u2018useful idiots<\/a>\u2019 ?\u00a0 As Lord Ashcroft found after the election, some 43% of 2017 Labour voters still wanted Britain never to leave the EU, and that\u2019s without any public \u2018narrative\u2019 on the option. Corbyn\u2019s star could fall on social media and in the press as quickly as it rose.\u00a0 Corbyn-mania could prove as short-lived as Clegg-mania.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

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        \u201cOh Jeremy Corbyn\u201d, they sang at Glastonbury.\u00a0 Oh Jeremy Corbyn, will you chose the old or the young ?<\/p>\n

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        \"\"<\/p>\n

        Corbyn Mania, Corbyn Fashion<\/strong><\/p>\n

        The thing about fashion is that it is a powerful but fickle beast.\u00a0 In CDSM<\/a>\u2019s values model terms, what\u2019s fashionable is determined by the Prospector Now People, well represented at Glastonbury, along with their friends the Pioneer Transcenders (of whom more later).<\/p>\n

        I didn\u2019t get a very positive response from most readers when I wrote in a blog in September 2015 (Jeremy Corbyn: What The Media and Political Classes Don\u2019t Get<\/a>)\u00a0 that: \u2018I think that Corbynism could do real damage to the Conservatives\u2019 \u2026 \u2018he could reverse the \u2018hollowing out\u2019 of British politics\u2019 and \u2018lots of people, especially young people too young to remember the politics of say the 1960s \u2013 1980s, are hearing such political ideas for the first time. This is generating an air of excitement and youthful energy around a political leader in his sixties whose views the Labour Party had long buried as political suicide\u2019.<\/p>\n

        I got no reaction at all a month earlier when in a previous blog (August 2015, Labour Lost the Prospectors, so Labour Lost the Election<\/a>) I suggested that Corbyn could become fashionable:<\/p>\n

        \u2018So could Jeremy Corbyn ever appeal to Prospectors ?\u00a0 Not likely on rational analysis \u2026 But what if fashion changes ? (The test of which is the opinions of the Now People).\u00a0 Could Corbyn yet become a sort of political grunge retro fashion icon ?\u00a0 Possibly if he looks popular enough.<\/em><\/p>\n

        He\u2019s got a yawning gulf to cross from universalist ethical land to appeal to the power and material wealth brigade, and in the middle of that divide lies ground such as \u2018showhome\u2019, which at first sight looks impossible to traverse.<\/em><\/p>\n

        If he does become Labour leader, their best hope of winning back the Prospector middle ground probably lies in making the Labour Party fun and fashionable around him.\u00a0 It seems unlikely that will be by design.\u00a0 Unite and the other unions are not <\/em>that<\/em> sort of Party People.\u00a0 But what if the surge of younger people attracted to Corbyn\u2019s Labour, not all of whom are tactical Tories, Trots or other entryists, are <\/em>themselves<\/em> part of a social change that could float Corbyn\u2019s boat even despite all the conventional Labour ballast ?\u00a0 A tide of New Political Beatniks ?<\/em><\/p>\n

        So don\u2019t try to be the trendy vicar Jeremy.\u00a0 Remain authentically unreconstructed and just hope that vicars become trendy.\u00a0 If an interest in radical policy becomes <\/em>de rigeur<\/em> post-hipster, Corbyn could yet prove to be an electoral asset.\u00a0 But maybe that\u2019s too radical\u2019.<\/em><\/p>\n

        I didn\u2019t think it would happen but it did. On June 24 this year, Hannah Marriott, fashion editor of The Guardian<\/em> \u2018decoded\u2019 Corbyn\u2019s \u2018sartorial choices<\/a>\u2019 for the Glastonburyites in an article entitled \u2018Corbyn fashion: the new face of Balenciaga?\u2019 [I had to look up Balenciaga: apparently it is a French luxury fashion house founded by a designer from the Basque country in Spain, which makes nice shoes, handbags and other things]. \u00a0She wrote:<\/p>\n

        \u201cUndoubtedly, Jeremy Corbyn<\/a> is far too busy with politics to be paying attention to the trends emerging from the men\u2019s fashion shows in Paris this weekend. And yet, spookily enough, his outfit today closely mirrors some of the strongest spring\/summer 2018 men\u2019s looks.<\/em><\/p>\n

        His beaten-up brown lace-up shoes are uncannily similar to those worn by male models on the Balenciaga catwalk a few days ago, in a show inspired by the off-duty looks adopted by office workers taking their kids to the park at the weekend. Balenciaga\u2019s design team would appreciate the normcore appeal of his unbuttoned, creased denim shirt, too, while his white trousers are a brave choice for Britain\u2019s most filthy festival. This isn\u2019t the first time Corbyn has accidentally adopted a high-fashion look. Vogue recently described his aesthetic a \u201cvery Vetements\u201d, while one of London\u2019s hottest designers, Martine Rose, recently used a picture of Corbs in his grey cycling shellsuit as the invitation for her show. Clearly, Corbyn has the fashion vote.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

        Why am I going on about this ?\u00a0 It is actually important because when fashion coincides with more earnest political currents it is what can carry your boat, message or movement (pick your metaphor), up and out of the usual channel, on a bigger wave.\u00a0 It may not last but it can make a bigger splash.<\/p>\n

        At any event, probably because Corbyn excited young Pioneers, his brand attracted some Now People and his brand became fashionable, for least one Glastonbury, and with a vengeance.<\/p>\n

        Corbyn took to the world-famous Glastonbury Pyramid stage and attracted a mainly youthful crowd as big as any rock star has ever managed.\u00a0 All over the site, even in the \u2018Silent Disco\u2019, audiences burst into spontaneous renditions of the song\/chant \u201cOh Jeremy Corbyn<\/a>\u201d,\u00a0 adapted, football crowd style<\/a>, to the tune of White Stripes song \u2018Seven Nation Army<\/a>\u2019.<\/p>\n

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