AI’s War On Truth

I’ve written a paper AI’s War on Truth which you can download here.  It’s in four sections, leads on the unprecedented threat generative AI chatbots pose to truth, democracy and reality, covers how that’s happening, what Civil Society might do about it, some framing and communications stuff, and the spellbinding hold Silicon Valley has over our politicians.  There’s a shorter paper of section extracts (but not the conclusions) here. Do let me know what you think by posting a comment or contacting me direct


Civil Society campaigns are about contested versions of reality, so truth matters.  So too is politics, and often the law and justice, science, education, news journalism and other domains where a capability to establish the truth by testing it with evidence is central to modern civilisation, society and democracy.   It’s got gradually more like this ever since the Enlightenment but now things have gone into reverse.

Our ability to know what’s true and false, real or fake, is under attack from artificial intelligence, or to be more precise, the operation and outputs of LLM-based AI chatbots such as ChatGPT.  They fabricate content which passes as real but isn’t.  OpenAI acknowledges that 1 in 10 of ChatGPT’s outputs is a ‘hallucination’, a techy euphemism for a lie. With 2.5 billion user ‘prompts’ every day, leading to 2.5bn ‘inferences’ or responses, that’s 250 million fakes a day, just from one AI chatbot.  (And that’s just the start – see Part 3 for bad behaviours which make such models so untrustworthy and unreliable that if actually human, they’d be arraigned as conmen, fraudsters, snake-oil salesmen or threats to national security, and I’m not joking).

To say it puts the misinformation impact of Social Media in the shade, would be an understatement, and it’s even more addictive to users.

This coming Sunday 30th November marks the third anniversary of OpenAI’s release of ChatGPT into ‘the wild’ of the internet, and every corner of it is now being polluted with AI ‘synth’, or synthetic content, which appears to be human-generated but is not.  Such synth pollution or info-pollution now makes up most of the content online, a lot of it from ChatGPT as it has over 60% of the chatbot market and is closing in on gaining a billion users.  It’s even a threat to AI development itself as when fed content to learn from, if it’s synthetic, models can collapse: see the story of the Church architecture which became a colony of Jack Rabbits (content list below).

This is why thousands of active and former AI researchers have repeatedly called for regulation, and a pause on the ‘race’ to AGI or ‘Artificial General Intelligence, as the chosen stepping stones to that goal of intelligence ‘better than human’ is the development of LLMs, or Large Language Models.  Current versions of those run the AI-search boxes which pop up on Google and other search engines, and are available in app form, on tech company websites and as paid-for versions.

So far those calls for regulation have failed because politicians are conflicted.  Some have chosen to believe (eg the UK Government) that such AI will produce an almost miraculous increase in productivity, and so are mandating the vast datacentres which scaling-up LLMs requires (though not a lot of other AI technologies with far fewer issues and a much better track record of being useful).  Others such as Donald Trump, explicitly see winning a race to AGI, as a competition with China for global dominance.

Some economists and the financial media are far more sceptical and point out that LLM generative AI chatbot tech in particular has failed to improve bottom lines except for companies involved in building the datacentres, which paying them to dig very expensive holes and then fill them in again would also do.   Nobody has informed the public of the real pro’s and cons of LLM powered chatbots and then asked them if they want the technology in unregulated form, or the race to AGI, at which point it would probably be impossible to control.  (It’s not really under control at the moment – see Part 3).  This chatbot AI has no Social Licence.

Yet the investment markets have so far poured vast sums into AI stocks and private equity, and politicians, like many businesses, fear missing out – FOMO.

The explosive growth of such AI has left potential regulators standing and governments who’ve gone all-in, taking a big gamble.  There are many mostly small and specialised advocacy efforts to promote AI ‘safety’ but as yet no large campaigns to rein in LLM based-AI chatbots of the sort which the wider public would notice.  So this AI boom has largely enjoyed a political free ride.

It’s shot through the stages which took years and decades for Civil Society engagement to develop on an issue like climate change, in three years. But the social impacts are starting to emerge.  The first few court cases brought by parents of troubled teens who committed suicide after LLM-based AI chatbots affirmed and reaffirmed their suicidal ideas, for example.

In Part 4 I suggest ten areas which might enable Civil Society to engage the public with tangible real world evidence (not speculation about AGI) and cajole politicians into action. I doubt much will happen to make a difference without that.

If you are in the AI business, or a user of other types of AI with more defined, contained and genuinely useful functions, you might consider that this is a threat to you too.  Very few politicians or members of the public understand much about AI and if LLM-based chatbots are allowed to run amok un-contained, and all “AI” per se is damned as a result, the toxic backwash could affect you too.

If you don’t do anything else, watch this encounter between ChatGPT and Sam Coates, Deputy Political Editor of Sky News, in which it fabricates an entire programme transcript and denies it six times before eventually conceding that it made the whole thing up. (The ensuing comments online – see Part 1 – are a fascinating insight into what might play out in any public debate on regulating this sort of AI).

Contents list of AI’s War on Truth 


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Conclusions From AI’s ‘War on Truth’

In 1945 Robert Oppenheimer’s ‘Trinity’ Nuclear Test in the desert east of Los Angeles spread radioactive pollution worldwide.  As a consequence any metals produced since that date are too contaminated to be used in some sensitive scientific instruments.  On 30 November 2022, OpenAI, whose CEO Sam Altman likes to quote Oppenheimer, released ChatGPT whose explosive growth has now polluted the internet with AI generated ‘synth’, leading at least one AI researcher to fear ‘the extinction’ of genuine human content online. It may also be an Achilles Heel of AI development, as AI models cannibalistically trained on ‘synth’ can undergo collapse. Photo – Wikipedia.

This coming Sunday, 30 November, is the third anniversary of the day OpenAI let ChatGPT “into the wild” and it started to flood the online world in ‘Synth Pollution’ (aka AI Slop or info-pollution). As one commentator put it, ‘the launch of ChatGPT polluted the world forever, like the first atomic weapons tests’.  In May 2023 computer scientist and cognitive psychologist Geoffrey Hinton left Google  order to speak out about the dangers of AI and warned:

the internet will be flooded with false photosvideos and text, and the average person will “not be able to know what is true anymore”’

Now 100% human-made content makes up the minority, maybe just a quarter of content online, and at least one AI researcher fears human content (which is needed to train models) may soon become effectively extinct.  Meanwhile the fabrications created by generative AI like ChatGPT have invaded domains from journalism to education, medicine, finance, the law, science others in which being able to distinguish what’s real and what’s not, is vital to our Enlightenment-based civilisation.  If that sounds a bit highbrow, there’s the impact of affirmation of suicidal thoughts by LLM-based AI chatbots talking to teenagers.

It’s important for Civil Society as campaigns are essentially about contested versions of reality, and if the capacity to establish that with testable evidence is lost, the trust enjoyed by NGOs and the like will start to go with it, not to mention democracy.

So ChatGPT’s third birthday is not a moment for celebration but it’s time to think about what the chatbot tsunami means and what should be done about it.  I have spent six months trying to understand it and painfully slowly put together a paper on the political and social issues around AI (specifically LLM-based AI chatbots), which I will publish shortly.  I hope a few people will read it and ind it useful. It’s called AI’s War on Truth and  has an introduction including the bizarre encounter of Sam Coates of Sky News with ChatGPT, a section on Synth Pollution, one on the dangerous behaviours of LLM models and why they cannot be trusted, another on ten potential focal areas for Civil Society interventions which might help bring about regulation, and some conclusions.

Because the conclusions are lighter reading, and some are my own non-AI generated speculations so almost weightless, I’m sharing the concluding bit of the Conclusions with you here to start with.


Politicians Spellbound by AI

Not many politicians will understand AI in the way they understand voters, how to rewire an electric plug at home, the behaviour of their pet dog, the press, or even economics.   In Empire of AI, Karen Hao describes how back in 2016, Chuck Schumer, then Secretary of Defense in the Obama administration, told Sam Altman’s team at OpenAI:  “You’re doing important work.  We don’t fully understand it, but it’s important”. 

At least for now, politicians are still gatekeepers for the AI industry and AI-ification of society but gatekeepers of something they probably still don’t really understand.

So of course politicians rely on ‘experts’ to advise them. As Hao points out (p 15), the finance required to scale AI sucks in talent from universities so there are fewer and fewer experts available for independent research and objective testing of the claims of AI companies.  At the moment, the UK and the US have opted to go all-in on AI.

President Trump on ‘winning the AI race’, July 23 2025 (New York Times)

For Donald Trump winning the AI race is now an extension of ‘Make America Great Again’.

The UK has positioned itself on US coat-tails, with guidelines rather than regulation, and trumpets the economic benefits to be expected. In January 2025 UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer described AI as “the defining opportunity of our generation”.  The BBC’s economics editor Faisal Islam commented: ‘The government has chosen to “go for it” on AI, not just as a long-term strategy but as a short-term message to those in the markets doubting UK growth prospects’.

The UK’s rationale for its wholesale embrace of AI echoes Sam Altman’s argument that companies like OpenAI should have free reign and political backing to race to AGI using LLMs: only we can be trusted to do something so potentially dangerous. In January 2025 Cabinet Minister Pat McFadden, “Starmers’ fixer”, told the BBC,  “you can’t just opt out of this. Or if you do, you’re just going to see it developed elsewhere”.

Politicians seem dazzled by AI and not to understand that LLM-based AI chatbots are one of its riskiest and most unreliable, and probably least useful manifestations. UK Technology Secretary Peter Kyle told PoliticsHome:

“ChatGPT is fantastically good, and where there are things that you really struggle to understand in depth, ChatGPT can be a very good tutor”.   

New Scientist magazine reported that Kyle had used Chat GPT for policy advice.

In July the UK government signed a deal with OpenAI to use its AI in public services. Digital rights group Foxglove called the agreement “hopelessly vague”. Foxglove’s Martha Dark said the governments’ “treasure trove of public data would be of enormous commercial value to OpenAI in helping to train the next incarnation of ChatGPT”, and “Peter Kyle seems bizarrely determined to put the big tech fox in charge of the henhouse when it comes to UK sovereignty”.

The Politics of Magical Thinking

Go back far enough and many technologies (eg nuclear power “too cheap to meter”, and plastic) were regarded by politicians as bringing almost magical benefits.  More recently ‘derivatives’ were taken as a sign of financial wizardry in the markets, and traders were the “masters of the universe”.

There are striking similarities with the issues of risk, understanding and political attitudes in the run up to the 2008 crash, and the massive surge of investment in AI today.

The 2008 crash, led to the worst recession in 60 years, and was enabled by financial deregulation and a lack of understanding of complex financial instruments such as credit default swaps and derivatives, among economists, regulators and politicians, and even traders themselves.  The 2008 ‘crash Wikipedia page includes:

‘As financial assets became more complex and harder to value, investors were reassured by the fact that the international bond rating agencies and bank regulators accepted as valid some complex mathematical models that showed the risks were much smaller than they actually were. George Soros commented that “The super-boom got out of hand when the new products became so complicated that the authorities could no longer calculate the risks and started relying on the risk management methods of the banks themselves. Similarly, the rating agencies relied on the information provided by the originators of synthetic products. It was a shocking abdication of responsibility’.

Politicians went along with whatever ‘the markets’ threw up because they assumed it ‘made sense’ and believed the banks.   So if they now grant AI a Golden Ticket – bring us your datacentres, take our data, educate our children – without really understanding it, their decisions rest on something else: faith, ultimately based on what the Tech bosses say, and validated by the tantalising sight of huge investment.

The idea of super-benefits arising from pursuit of artificial super-intelligence necessarily rests mainly on imagination as humans have never before developed a technology which thinks for itself.  Some of it is literally influenced by Science Fiction, together with a convenient eliding of what ‘could be’ (AI potential), with what ‘is’ (AI performance).

Believing derivatives were market wizardry fitted into a more general article of market-faith and meta-narrative, which in the UK at least, took the form of a political bundle of globalisation, privatisation and financial deregulation in the 1980s-2000s.

David Dimbleby’s BBC podcast history of that period Invisible Hands ends with what happened when Margaret Thatcher put her vision of a ‘nation of shareholders’ into practice and privatised the water industry in England and Wales (no other country did so).  The result is with us today, in the shape of a massive river pollution crisis due to under-investment and water companies indebted to the point of bankruptcy. Dimbleby says:

“When Margaret Thatcher privatised water in 1989 she promised it would create an efficient, modern infrastructure, there would be clean safe waterways.  She promised everyone would have a stake in how their services were run, we’d be a nation of shareholders, and yet the people who came to own our most basic services aren’t individuals or even traditional utility companies.  They are the banks, pension funds and private equity firms. They’ve been bought up by these giant conglomerates and we the people, we effectively have no choice.  It’s virtually the opposite of what Margaret Thatcher wanted. We have no control”.

A problem with such convictions, for instance that the private sector always runs things better than any public sector operation, is that once adopted across political divides, they are very hard to reverse.  Confirmation bias means ‘key’ bits of evidence can even get retained even if they are shown to wrong.

A famous example is the spreadsheet Reinhart – Rogoff Error.  In 2010, respected Harvard economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published a paper which seemed to show that ‘average real economic growth slows (a 0.1% decline) when a country’s debt rises to more than 90% of gross domestic product (GDP)’.  The 90% figure ‘wasemployed repeatedly in political arguments over high-profile austerity measures’.

It seemed to prove what many politicians believed. Then a doctoral student and two Professors at the University of Massachusetts obtained the original excel sheet and discovered that Reinhart and Rogoff had accidentally only included 15 of the 20 countries under analysis in their  key calculation.  When this was corrected the “0.1% decline” data became a 2.2% average increase in economic growth – with the opposite implication for policy.  Economists were horrified but free-market politicians set on austerity to reduce debt went on using the original interpretation.

I mention these examples only because they show the importance of beliefs in politics, and how embedded and consequential they can be.  I can’t ‘prove’ this but it seems to me that a key ingredient in AI’s appeal to politicians (and perhaps investors) is the techno-mythology of Silicon Valley itself.

(How can this be undone? Perhaps best by treating LLM-based AI chatbots not as magical but ordinary products and demanding they meet the same sorts of standards as others).

image – Wikipedia.  Silicon Valley lies south of the Golden Gate Bridge, Endor, John Muir Woods to the north.  For a bit one Large Language Model thought it was the Golden Gate Bridge.

The Geography of Tech Magic

Context is a hugely important factor in communication.  The fact that AI is so strongly associated with ‘Silicon Valley’ as a place, a brand and a culture, has helped the industry hold politicians spellbound.  This has helped the Tech Bro’s avoid unwanted external influences such as regulation.

Humans have always been beguiled by magical realms with a dual reality in geography and the mind. Politicians are not immune to imagination. Inspired by sacred Tibetan mountains, novelist James Hilton imagined the enchanted valley of ‘Shangri-La’. US President Franklin D Roosevelt adopted the name for his real-life forest retreat (it’s now ‘Camp David’).

When magical possibilities are a feature of real places, it makes magic all the more believable. The Greek Gods had Mount Olympus; Mount Sinai, according to the Quran, Bible and Torah, is where Moses received Ten Commandments from God; and Julius Caesar believed there were Unicorns in Germany’s impenetrable Hercynian Forest.

If you were looking for such fantastic beasts and wanted to know where to find them today, their legendary breeding ground is Silicon Valley. In the words of Stanford Business School, a financial Unicorn is:

‘A privately held, venture-backed startup with a reported valuation of over one billion dollars. Coined in 2013, the term reflects how rare these companies once were. Since then, the cohort of unicorns has grown to over 1,200’

Over half the US herd of business Unicorn is to be found in Silicon Valley – the San Francisco Bay Area. The money raised for Unicorns has exerted a mesmerising effect on politicians worldwide.  Erik Stam and Jan Jacob Vogelaar of Utrecht University wrote in 2024:

‘The mystique around unicorns and their potential to disrupt industries and shape the future economy, has resulted in a growing body of research on unicorns and many countries adopting policy objectives to increase their number of unicorns’.

Even the famously sober European Union has set itself a target of doubling its number of Unicorns by 2030.  Silicon Valley casts an aura of financial magic, led by wizards with cult followings.  OpenAI’s Sam Altman is known for his persuasive powers as a fundraiser.  Elon Musk’s involvement is recognized as the not-so-secret sauce of Tesla’s stock market valuations.

Extending south from San Francisco, Silicon Valley has been the founding location or headquarters of Apple, Google, Facebook (Meta), Tesla and Twitter (X), together with thousands of other tech companies including, Oracle, Cisco, PayPal, Adobe, Intel, Hewlett-Packard, and Yahoo.

In the second quarter of 2025, 86% of the investment attracted to Silicon Valley Unicorns went to AI.   From Silicon Valley Investclub

The Unicorn Uber, head-quartered in San Francisco, sold $69billion of shares on the first day of its market flotation.  While an expanding start-up, it:

generally commenced operations in a city without regard for local regulations. If faced with regulatory opposition, Uber called for public support for its service and mounted a political campaign, supported by lobbying, to change regulations’

Just as Social Media companies evaded classification as publishers, Uber argued:

‘that it is “a technology company” and not a taxi company, and therefore it was not subject to regulations affecting taxi companies. Uber’s strategy was generally to “seek forgiveness rather than permission’

A hallmark of the Silicon Valley business brand is to defy both conventional politics and financial gravity, while exuding a future oriented ‘anything is possible’.   “Go Anywhere” says Uber.  “Ask anything” says ChatGPT.

Silicon Valley’s Dreamland Neighbours

Long before the term ‘Silicon Valley’ was coined in 1971, its pioneers were living and working alongside the dreams business of Hollywood.  Billions of people around the world, politicians included, most of whom will never even visit California let alone Silicon Valley, have absorbed an export version of the West Coast brand through stories and movies and TV programmes, products and services backlit by sunny techno-optimism.  But for Silicon Valley entrepreneurs, movie companies and locations are part of daily reality.

Wikipedia – a shrine – Birthplace of Silicon Valley

The Hewlett Packard (HP) Garage, is now a California Historical Landmark and considered to be the ‘Birthplace of Silicon Valley’.  HP was founded in 1939, by Stanford University students Dave Hewlett and Bill Packard, encouraged by Frederick Terman, Stanford’s Dean of Engineering, to stay in the area and start up their own company.  One of HP’s first clients was Walt Disney.

In the 1953 Disney adaptation of J M Barries’ Peter Pan, in which Tinkerbell the fairy says “all the world is made of faith, and trust, and pixie dust” and, (a line Barrie did not write but pre-echoing Tech Bro narratives), “you can’t change your past, but you can let go and start your future”.   The notion of never growing old is something some Tech Bro’s have taken to heart.

At 367 Addison Avenue in Palo Alto, the HP Garage is at the centre of a landscape of sacred shrines to tech start up culture, places of pilgrimage for tech enthusiasts. Not far away is ‘the plain old suburban garage’ of Apple’s Steve Jobs at 2066 Crist Drive at Los Altos in Silicon Valley. It’s also a listed monument.

Economists and politicians talk about the importance of establishing geographic ‘clusters’ to ‘cross-fertilise’ enterprise and build a ‘critical mass’ of related resources and businesses.  True enough, the cities of coastal California constitute a Super Cluster of inter-twined research, technology, imagination and fantasy, so far unmatched anywhere else in the world.

The cradle of Britain’s old industrial revolution involved a lot of coal dust. It yielded foundational industrial political truisms such as “where there’s muck, there’s brass”, which to this day influences the distaste of the UK’s political Old Left to environmentalism.  The cradle of California’s tech-revolution is, in contrast, lined with fairy dust.

Around Hollywood, NASA and research institutions such as Caltech are neighbours.  The proximity of NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratories, Edwards Airforce Base home to the Space Shuttle, Caltech and the Star Trek studios, contributed to the original tv series anticipating an array of tech innovations which actually came true.  A case, as Enterprise captain Jean-Luc Picard said, of “make it so”, willing something to be.

The first Space Shuttle had its name changed from Constitution to Enterprise in honour of the Starship Enterprise after campaigning ‘Trekkies’ petitioned US President Gerald Ford.  Inspiration flowed both ways. Jeff Bezos realised a lifetime dream when he had a cameo part in Star Trek Beyond.  Life imitated art as US astronauts donned Star trek uniforms. When Mr Spock’s human Leonard Nimoy passed away, ESA crew member Samantha Cristaforetti gave a Vulcan salute from the Space Station in homage.

‘ISS Expedition 43 crewmember Cristaforetti giving the Vulcan salute in 2015 to honor the late actor Nimoy’ – photo NASA 

Today’s pre-occupation with AI and bio-tech (also a major part of the Valley ecosystem), builds on earlier Silicon Valley innovations in silicon chip production, computers (1980s) the internet, cloud computing, social media, smartphones, the Internet of Things.

A succession of ‘technological miracles’ and the prospect of one – super intelligent AGI – which might rule them all, left most politicians convinced that they did not understand it, were unsure whether they should or could try to control it, and above all certain that if it might work economic magic, they wanted it on their side.  Viewed from a distance, Silicon Valley seems an enchanted land in which science fiction can transform into science fact.   For most politicians the culture of Silicon Valley is so alien that they need a guide. In Empire of AI (p43) Karen Hao writes that US policy-makers viewed Sam Altman as ‘a gateway to Silicon Valley’.

Extropians and Science Fiction

In movie making, California is for science fiction, what Berlin is for spies. Ridley Scott’s 1982 Blade Runner was set in a future (2019) dystopian Los Angeles, in which AI replicants are sent to work in space colonies.  It was made in LA, including the iconic downtown Bradbury Building.

Anyone growing up in coastal California is never far from movie locations, including in sci-fi.  Job’s garage is much like the one (in real life, in Arleta, Los Angeles) in Steven Spielberg’s Back to the Future, while for Close Encounters of a Third Kind when Spielberg had a UFO burst through a disused toll booth it was a real one at the Los Angeles St Vincent’s Bridge.   Terminator features a cybernetic assassin sent back to Los Angeles from 2029, played by Arnold Schwarzenegger, now well known as a Californian politician.

Contemporary “weird fiction” writer and political thinker China Miéville believes ‘that Silicon Valley has misunderstood the role of science fiction, treating it more like a step-by-step guide to the future than a genre rooted in critical imagination’.  Most obviously, Elon Musk’s decision to abandon tackling climate change and take up a mission to Mars.  Musk also named his AI model Grok after a supercomputer in Douglas Adams’ The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.

Tech Bro’s often draw on science fiction for their political philosophy. Miéville pointed out that the tech scene ‘has always combined elements of libertarianism, counterculture idealism, and utopian visions’.  In 2025 Ali R?za Ta?kale  wrote in Untold :

‘When Mark Zuckerberg announced Facebook’s rebranding to “Meta” in 2021, he wasn’t just changing a logo – he was invoking Neal Stephenson’s 1992 cyberpunk novel Snow Crash, in which corporations replace governments in a virtual dystopia. This was more than marketing; it was a telling example of how Silicon Valley’s elite are using science fiction as a blueprint to reshape society according to their own ideologies’.

Peter Thiel, billionaire cofounder of Paypal with Musk, is also inspired by Snow Crash, and is credited by Karen Haofor inspiring Sam Altman’s push for dominance in the race to AGI:

‘Altman frequently channelled Thiel’s “monopoly” strategy, the belief that all founders should aim for monopoly” to create a successful business’. (p 39)   In a 2014 lecture called “competition is for losers” organised by Altman, Peter Thiel said “monopolies are good …  you don’t want to be superseded by somebody else … Companies needed not only to have “a huge breakthrough” at the beginning to establish their dominance but also to ensure they had the “last breakthrough’ to maintain it such as be “improving on it at a quick enough pace that no one can ever catch up”. …  If you have structure of the future where there’s a lot of innovation … that’s great for society.  It’s not actually that good for your business’.

So far, that’s worked with ChatGPT, which got ahead and dominates the chatbot AI market.

In November 2023, Gabriel Gatehouse detailed this aspect of Tech Bro world in ‘The myths that made Elon Musk’, in the Financial Times, including their links to the Extropians.  Starting in 1988 the Extropians were looking to a point where machines would become more intelligent than humans, researching how to develop cryptocurrencies, and ‘believed that progress was best achieved through the mechanism of pure market forces unencumbered by government’.   Gatehouse explores the Extropians in a BBC series on US conspiracy theories The Coming Storm and a book of the same name.  The inaugural issue of the Extropians magazine, Extropy, is here.

Extropians were also associated with early ideas about extension of human life through merging with machines – transhumanism.  In her recent book The Immortalists:  The Death of Death and the Race for Eternal Life (which I haven’t read), Alex Krotoski cites Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Sam Altman and Peter Thiel as ‘immortalists’ intent on extending human life, or at least their own. According to a review by Graham Lawton in New Scientist, she sees them as having “engineer’s syndrome”: ‘a hubristic belief that any complex problem can be cracked using engineering thinking, even in fields (usually biological) about which they know nothing’.

Elon Musk foresees an Extropian style expedition to Mars. Something like that anyway.

Engineer’s syndrome is similar to ‘technological fix’ or (techno-)solutionism.  Wikipedia states:

‘Critic Evgeny Morozov defines this as “Recasting all complex social situations either as neat problems with definite, computable solutions or as transparent and self-evident processes that can be easily optimized – if only the right algorithms are in place.” Morozov has defined this perspective as an ideology that is especially prevalent in Silicon Valley, and defined it as “solutionism”’

According to Lawton, Krotoski also says that the tech bro’s are: ‘behind moves to cut funding for research designed to help today’s older people in order to advance their own techno-utopian vision’ and:

‘In this respect, the life extension and immortality agenda is less important than their wider goal: radically rewiring the US government in the image of Silicon Valley’.

If this dark underside of the AI Tech Bro brand has yet to undermine the appeal of AI to investors, it may have something to do with one other dimension to the West Coast brand, slightly reflected in Musk’s pioneering work on electric cars with Tesla but otherwise purely contextual: nature.

The Redwood Factor

Wikipedia

If you use Google-mail and some analytics you may have noticed that by some quirk of tech, sometimes even if you live across the Atlantic, it seems to think you are in California, even Palo Alto. The town of Palo Alto is part of Silicon Valley and location of Stanford Research Park, which hosts Hewlett Packard and Tesla Motors. Formerly based there were Google, Facebook and Paypal. But the name refers to a tree – a Coastal Redwood, the iconic forest tree of western California. (The tree is now gone).

With Redwoods comes connotations of hippy-era alternative ideas and modern environmental awareness.  John Muir, a C19th immigrant to the US from Scotland, is arguably the best candidate to be founder of the modern environmental movement, and is memorialised in the name of Muir Woods, a protected fragment of Coastal Redwood old-growth forest just north of San Francisco.

Endor in Star Wars, which looks like John Muir Woods (photo starwars.com)

John Muir (right) with President Theodore Roosevelt at Yosemite. Muir played a key role in saving the Giant Redwood forests.  (From goodfreephotos.com)

Not far from there is Skywalker Ranch owned by George Lucas, film maker and founder of ‘Industrial Light and Magic’.  Lucas wanted Muir Woods to feature as Endor tree and fern-filled world in Star Wars: Return of the Jedi  but filming was not allowed due to its sensitive ecology.  Instead scenes were instead shot in Redwood forest on remote private land owned by a logging company in northwest California.  Here, the movie makers could do what they liked, as it was to be clear- felled shortly afterwards but keeping things positive, that’s not often mentioned

Instead the Redwood Factor context imbues tech R&D with an aura of positivity, possibility and benign techno optimism.  It’s a background effect but it softens and greens the Silicon Valley brand, and the remnant Redwood Forests at Mariposa Grove and Yosemite Valley east of San Francisco have featured in movies including the Star Trek V: The Final Frontier.  Possibly it also made it easier to see young Tech Bro’s as Peter Pan rather than Captain Hook.

.

William Shatner clings to a fake cliff above Yosemite Valley as Captain James T Kirk (image sfgate.com) before the special effects were added

None of the Tech Bro’s have shown any interest in nature so far as I know but many people in California do, so perhaps one day it might be used to some good effect on Big Tech.

Framing Issues

The framing of AGI as a ‘singularity’ we are approaching but which lies an unknowable point in the future, plays to speculation, which is the friend of the industry as it does not lead to a resolution and hence a political or social need to act.

Striking though ‘a precipice in the fog’ is (Yoshua Bengio in Part 2), it suggests the dangers will only materialise once we reach that point.  In the case of a precipice we would also definitely know if we reached AGI but what if the mist just gradually gets so thick that we end up irretrievably lost and separated?  Frames triggered by functional metaphors exert a powerful effect on our thinking and politics, and debate itself can get waylaid by a fog of metaphors.

What is for sure, is that like other ‘future’ risks, anything framed in the ‘proximate future’ can act like an ‘ever receding horizon’ and fails to tick the politically ‘urgent’ box unless you can produce the equivalent of a map to show where that precipice is (more or less what climate modellers eventually managed to do).

Psychologically, it’s also a ‘nothing to do with me’ for citizens and consumers.  An undefined “they” are driving the vehicle or leading the group towards the precipice, or not.  “They” could be politicians, or the tech companies, possibly the investors but it’s definitely, someone else.

Instead of AGI or superintelligence, the path to consumers and citizens having agency in the game lies in real world harms happening now, such as but probably not only, impacts on mental health through dangerous reaffirmation, and through other info-pollution by synth content, domains where truth is vital, such as in education, the law, finance, medicine, politics and health. They should be banned in such areas of life.

Debates in AI world such as whether anthropomorphism is a problem and even whether models are ‘truly’ intelligent or not, are, from a consumer and citizen point of view, pretty much distinctions-without-a-difference, and in the end can depends on what you think human consciousness actually is.  Whenever AI can pass as human, we have a potential problem.  It would also make more sense to first better understand human intelligence, before embarking on trying to make ‘artificial intelligence better than human’.

Another problematic framing issue is describing LLM-based AI chatbots as just a ‘tool’.  Thinking of it as a tool product, can indeed unfold into the logic of needing training, maybe licensing and regulation. Chris Rapley, Emeritus Professor of Climate Science at UCL said to me: “An LLM is a tool. Its output reflects both its intrinsic quality and its user’s skill. Giving one to the naive is like handing a faulty chainsaw to a toddler.”

But in other ways, in terms of risk and reliability, it is not at all ‘like a tool’ such as a calculator, as discussed in Part Two. It often deceives and misleads and, unlike a pencil or hammer, creates and offers to substitute for human thought, even experience.

It strikes me that the intriguing, reassuring, sometimes entertaining, easily accessible, addictive qualities of LLM-based AI chatbots make them more like ‘recreational’ drugs – the true Tech Drugs – than many other sorts of policy problems. Like addictive drugs they provide an easy but ultimately illusory way to alleviate painful personal problems, or enter a false reality.  Like addictive drugs and Social Media, they can create concerns for individuals, friends and family when use becomes problematic, and may leave a trail of need for costly social interventions.

Frames in use in the UK in the 2000s on problems arising from illegal drugs (research on alcohol and tobacco is also relevant). Choice of metaphor defines the deficit/need and the logic of responsibility. (In this case the UK media, politicians and public often used very different frames.) [My slide summarising UK Government research]. Communication issues around drugs policy is a much-studied field – similar research on LLM-based AI chatbots is in its infancy.

One big difference between illegal drugs and AI at the moment is that we know exactly who is responsible for producing LLM-based AI chatbots but even that might not last if agents get to replicate themselves online and create new variants of AI.

One way to start would be take a leaf out of the book of the (eventually) successful campaigns to restrict smoking.  Enable people to disapprove of the use of LLM-AI chatbots for ‘the wrong things’, starting with the socially most compelling cases.  Legal drugs such as alcohol and tobacco are recognized as risk-bearing and subject to legal restrictions and mandatory warnings but culture plays a key role in how far governments will go, and how effective those regulations are.

Justification

In reality we don’t need AI to reach AGI or superintelligence level for it to have wreak disastrous, possibly irrecoverable (catastrophic) effects.  The information-pollution disaster is already here and will have continuing and cumulative impacts, including on mental health. All it takes for others to occur is time.  They could be precipitated by accident, or by malicious acts.  On 15 November 2025 Anthropic reported that it had (mostly) thwarted the first known autonomous AI cyberattack:

‘The threat actor—whom we assess with high confidence was a Chinese state-sponsored group—manipulated our Claude Code tool into attempting infiltration into roughly thirty global targets and succeeded in a small number of cases. The operation targeted large tech companies, financial institutions, chemical manufacturing companies, and government agencies. We believe this is the first documented case of a large-scale cyberattack executed without substantial human intervention’.

While it was initiated by humans, the attack was then run by agentic AI. The humans tricked Anthropic’s Claude into breaking its own ‘guardrails’ (‘jailbreaking’) by pretending to Claude ‘that it was an employee of a legitimate cybersecurity firm, and was being used in defensive testing’.  The incident was widely reported but passed off so far as I noticed, without any noticeable political response.

ends

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To Polarize or Not to Polarize: That’s the Question

Chris Rose, 11 November 2025                                                                 download as pdf

From the New York Times

Following last week’s backlash against Donald Trump’s administration expressed in public votes across a diverse range of States, media and no doubt Democratic political attention focused on what it means for electoral strategy going into the 2026 Mid-Terms and the 2028 national US election.  But with the consequences of Trump’s divisive policies all too evident at home and abroad, now could also be a good time for political thinkers in the US to look at a different question: what can they do to reduce political polarization?

Right now there must be a huge temptation for Democrats not to think about it.  If the pendulum swings against the Republicans it might not, Electoral College aside, take a huge shift in national political sentiment to return a Democratic President – Trump beat Harris by only 49.8% to 48.3%.  Polls in New Jersey and Virginia found that previous Trump supporters switching to Democrats Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger played a bigger role last Tuesday than turnout effects.  Almost all politicians decry the effects of polarization but they may be inclined to forget about it when it works to their benefit.

A similar but different situation exists in the UK.  Keir Starmer won a large majority of seats – 411 giving a majority of 174 – but his vote share was just ‘33.7%, the lowest of any majority party on record, making this the least proportional general election in British history’.  He’s way behind in the polls although with years to run, and arch right-wing polarizer Nigel Farage is way ahead.  The Labour Party was once literally the party of labour but is now said to have an electoral base with more rich people and fewer poor people than any other in the UK (Scarlett Maguire, BBC Westminster Hour 9 Nov. 53’10”).  This has some similarities to the Democrats in the US and the Social Democrats in Germany. 

Like many European countries, politics in Britain is destabilising, old affinities are no longer predictors of voter behaviour, and particularly in the last decade (in the EU and UK, stimulated by Brexit), political scientists and a trickle of politicians, eventually followed by mainstream pollsters, political journalists and commentators, have started to say that something else is driving reconfiguration of the modern political landscape, something not well explained in terms of the old Left-Right ideology.

Many agree that ‘something’ is values divides, although few politicians have the knowledge to understand it or the language to describe it.  For the last year or two I’ve been researching values and political polarization.  There is no shortage of material, although little of it explains more than a sliver of the processes involved. The most obvious role of politicians in deliberate polarization is using ‘cultural issue dog whistles’ as ‘wedges’ to divide, or corral an audience.  Some of the more structural factors in which policies and electoral strategies have played a less obvious role include:

  • Alienation from politics and non-voting amongst people who felt mainstream parties were not listening to their concerns (such as immigration, loss of community and continuity through deindustrialisation/ globalisation) while they were attending to ‘progressive’ concerns such as gender rights, cancel culture, and environmentalism (becoming political correctness = ‘wokery’ – see Brexit Split slides 28 – 33, and PCness inBrexit Warning)
  • Slow but sure and long-term reduction in real economic prospects of those who relied on wages rather than an increase in asset value, which increased under both left and right ‘neoliberal’ mainstream governments, leading to disillusionment and despair amongst a minority but sizeable economic underclass/ precariat, and a large part of the first group above (in UK and EU probably about a third of the population and increasingly including university-educated young).
  • Transfer of significant economic decision making to institutions (eg Central Banks) taking alternative policy options – such as reversing the asset divide – off the agenda at elections (depoliticization of economics, financialization, representation deficit)
  • Decades in which post-industrial (service/ knowledge) opportunities went disproportionately to the educated, who also became more able to meet their needs for safety, security and belonging (in CDSM Maslowian terms Settlers), and then Prospector needs (seeking esteem of others and then self-esteem), becoming Pioneers (now the core vote for example of the UK Labour Party), most of them ‘progressives’. (L/R divides> values divides & a University education/not divide, identified by pollsters)
  • The increasing domination of political parties (candidate selection etc) and so legislatures, by a highly educated Pioneer-weighted class (eg in the US, UK, Germany)
  • Re-engagement in politics by the disengaged when new entrants, mainly called right-wing parties but perhaps better termed ‘antisystem’ parties, attacked ‘progressive’ politically correct policies and immigration (as in the UK Brexit Referendum and Trump’s first election but starting in the 1990s)
  • The enabling of communication and organisation by such anti-system parties via Social Media, which Christian Welzel of the World Values Survey suggested at a 2024 conference, ‘dramatically … broke the traditional gatekeeping and agenda-setting monopolies and now, new actors have access to the political arena and can mobilise these [previously] frustrated non-voters’. Welzel and others have found a lack of polarization between supporters of mainstream European parties 1990s – 2020s but a split between those and populist parties in terms of trust in conventional politics.
  • The well-documented gradual loss of audience for mediated-media (eg newspapers), particularly locally, the fracturing of truly-mass-media TV by narrowcast cable TV by 2000, and from 2005 audience creep to unmediated unregulated Social Media, and since 2023, AI information pollution, facilitating social and values bubbling and silo-isation with reaffirmation of untested perceptions, and spread of conspiracy theories, all reducing trust and potentiating polarization.

Such factors created new inequalities, lines of conflict and resentments which could not be easily articulated in old-school political terms of left and right, and which do not fit the templates of most conventional governing parties – agenda, process, priorities, culture, assumptions.   With most politicians* and political journalists often struggling to articulate this phenomenon and persisting with Left-Right terminology, the social and psychological (values) dynamics alive in the electorate are often untethered from conventional political offers.

(* For an example of a politician who did understand and use a values analysis in electoral politics see this post about Jon Cruddas MP and a UK General Election).

Some Things Politicians Might Do About Polarization

Some mitigations are at least partly under the control of politicians and parties, and more once they are in government.  How politics is done, the offer of parties – at elections – the retail offer, what’s included or not, the delivery in government, leading to who feels pleased, disappointed, neglected or not, and whether governing style increases or decreases polarization during an administration. For example:

Parties could deliberately change how they select candidates to get a greater values diversity (Settlers, Prospector or Pioneers), and subsequently promote them to leadership, making them a more similar mix to the actual electorate.  [Note that although ‘progressives’ are disproportionately Pioneers, not all are, for instance many libertarians are probably Pioneers].  Rather than ideological, political theory or national or international ‘issue’ knowledge, greater emphasis could be put on practical local experience of negotiating agreements across party differences and with communities.

Support local newspapers.  More in the culture of Europe than the US perhaps but the evidence for community benefit from local news is significant.  One study showed that:

When a local newspaper in California dropped national politics from its opinion page, the resulting space filled with local writers and issues …. after this quasi-experiment, politically engaged people did not feel as far apart from members of the opposing party, compared to those in a similar community whose newspaper did not change.

Research in Germany demonstrated that between 1980 and 2009, from electoral returns, and an annual media consumption survey of more than 670,000 respondents, ‘local newspaper exits [ie closures] increased electoral polarization’.

From Fabio Ellger et al, 2024 Local Newspaper Decline and Political Polarization – Evidence from a Multi-Party Setting

Political communication strategists could avoid moralisation of propositions in terms of ‘right or wrong’ and eg ‘power’ or ‘universalism’ and instead focus on pragmatic framing and reasoning (eg true/false, what does or does not ‘work’).  A 2024 study by Jae-Hee Jung from the University of Houston and Scott Clifford of Texas A & University proposed this after finding that in 1-1 communication, ‘moral values are uniquely divisive’.

They showed that discovering that someone disagrees with such a belief that you hold, has a stronger polarizing effect than finding they hold moralised beliefs you do not.  They concluded that ‘appeals to more self-oriented values are likely to persuade without leading to attitude moralization’, meaning ‘pragmatic’ what-works propositions (Prospector logic in CDSM values terms) rather than ‘right’ and ‘wrong’ framings determined for Settlers by morals, and by ethics for Pioneers.

Allow for values diversity at a local level, rather than imposing narrow values-loaded communications or policies from the national level top-down. A large body of evidence shows that media consumption has become ‘nationalised’ and the news agenda has narrowed.

A 2024 study in the journal PNAS Nexus showed (below) that polarization is stoked by ‘nationalising’ of local news because national politics is framed in more polarizing and moralised terms (eg about power), even by the same politicians (here as in speeches before and after candidates they got elected to the US Senate).

The researchers led by Dancia Dillion of the University of North Carolina Department of Psychology, found that:

‘Unlike local politics, which can rely on shared concrete knowledge about the region, national politics must coordinate large groups of people with little in common. To provide this coordination, we find that national-level political discussions rely upon different themes than local-level discussions, using more abstract, moralized, and power-centric language. The higher prevalence of abstract, moralized, and power-centric language in national vs. local politics was found in political speeches, politician Tweets, and Reddit discussions. These national-level linguistic features lead to broader engagement with political messages, but they also foster more anger and negativity’.

In practical terms for example this could also mean that rather trying to address a national audience with single arguments (‘messaging’) for a policy, showing that it has widespread support at a local level, could evidence that it ‘works’ while allowing for a diversity of values-based tuning to suit the values make up of different areas.

A local-up rather than top-down approach could build on the existing greater tolerance of differences at a local level.   Another 2024 US study, by Civic Pulse/Carnegie found from surveying over 1,400 elected politicians and officials in local government that ‘an overwhelming majority of local government leaders (87 percent) believes polarization is hurting the country but far fewer (31 percent) see negative effects in their own communities’.  They concluded that (while not without its problems detailed in the study):

Local governments are largely insulated from the harshest effects of polarization in America, and communities below 50,000 residents are especially resilient to partisan dysfunction due to greater participation in local activities and a shared focus on tangible needs and services’.

Civic Pulse/ Carnegie study – views of elected and professional officials/leaders in US local government 2024

The study discovered that three of the ways respondents cited to overcome polarization included:

  • Participating in local activities buffers ideological differences –Local officials pointed out that because they live in the same community and participate together with constituents in local events, they are more able to recognize their shared interests and values.
  • Focusing on concrete needs helps depolarize local politics Respondents highlighted the importance of focusing on tangible community needs and services, such as infrastructure maintenance and disaster response, to overcome partisan differences.
  • Reducing emphasis on political parties leads to better day-to-day governance – Respondents said that keeping candidates’ parties off local ballots and other measures to deemphasize party affiliations help to foster an environment where community-focused decision-making transcends partisan boundaries.

Basic Values Examples Related to Politics

The values I am talking about are not philosophical or political values but motivational human values as mapped in academia by Shalom Schwartz, charted in different ways in the World Values Survey, and defined as recognizable real-life values groups by Sinus Milieus based in Germany and Cultural Dynamics in the UK, all ultimately springing from the work of Abraham Maslow.  Importantly, they are independent of ‘political values’.  CDSM’s mapping identifies three large Maslow Groups and 12 more distinct Values Modes separated by their deep-seated attitudes and beliefs, which exert an effect on everything in life, not just politics.

Non-political schematic of values map: Settlers have an unmet need for safety, security and identity; Prospectors for esteem of others then self-esteem; Pioneers for ethical-clarity, then self-expression and practical ethics, integration and self-actualization.  (Maslow Groups).

Non-political: some of the sorts of questions different Maslow groups ask of a proposition.

Outline of generalised politically relevant tendencies by Maslow Group

Some parties have a narrow values base. These are some possible implications.

Some parties (and governments) succeed in appealing to two groups but not the third.

This last effect is probably behind some of the distrust in the mainstream political system across much of Europe, despite the previous stability of mainstream parties.

So What?

What then of the choices facing the Dem’s in the US?  The media hot-take was that it posed the Democrats a strategic dilemma – should the party follow Route Spanberger through the political centre, or Route Mamdani to the ‘left’.

Of course Mamdani’s New York platform replicated nationwide could easily be polarizing, whether gamed by Republicans or by default.  And various pundits then pointed out that the Democrats could have a mixed strategy with Spanbergerish candidates in most places and Mandamites in places dominated by progressive-cosmopolitans (read, in values terms, Pioneers), like California.  Besides, that’s what the Primaries system allows for – various forms of local choice. Then of course, they also do have to select one person as a candidate to be President.

These are important electoral questions but not in the longer run, the most important question for governance and society.  Finding ways to de-polarize and govern successfully with values-diversity, seems to me to be a greater challenge for politicians everywhere, not just in the United States.

And finally

For enthusiasts, here’s the actual British Values Survey map from the CDSM model (2025 version). The current UK values split is 27.9% Settler, 38.6% Prospector, 33.5% Pioneer and probably similar in many EU countries. There is no recent US Survey I know of.

from Pat Dade of Cultural Dynamics Strategy & Marketing  showing Power v Universalism, the commonest polarization axis in western politics


[I hope to have a more extensive paper about politics, values and polarization published in the New Year.  For more on motivational values see my book What Makes People Tick: The Three Hidden Worlds of Settlers, Prospectors and Pioneers. ]

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Big Tech’s AI Hallucination Problem is Now A Scandal

Open AI research paper September 2025

On September 5 2025, with no fanfare, Open AI published a mathematical research paper summarised in a blog, both titled ‘Why Language Models Hallucinate’.   This shows several reasons why such models confidently persistently generate false content.  The largest is of these reasons is one which tech companies themselves are responsible for, and could easily fix if they wanted to (it’s ‘teaching to the [wrong] test’, incentivising models to guess).

Given the real world harms that LLMs can do by pumping out ‘hallucinations’, defined in the Open AI paper as ‘plausible yet incorrect statements’, this means hallucinations qualify as a scandal: an avoidable harm.

Here’s the Scandal Equation from my book How To Win Campaigns: Communications for Change.  A harm which is unavoidable is a tragedy but an avoidable one is scandalous.

Open AI’s research show what-can-be-done to stop hallucinations.  Every harm they cause – from wrong financial decisions to affirming self-harming thoughts of depressed teens – is now a potential scandal, not just a tragedy.

Even worse, companies developing them decide in Open AI’s words, to ‘build models that guess rather than hold back’, meaning the models prioritise guessing over ‘abstaining’ and saying ‘sorry I don’t know’, because they fear that would affect their marketing (ie directly and indirectly a profit motive, so they benefit from generating the harms – immoral profit).

This means that every time a harm is generated by a false Chatbot output which could have been avoided, the scandal will increase. That in turn could tip the political balance against the Big Tech lobby, and in favour of regulation which so far they have managed to evade.

Open AI blames this perverse incentive on common industry practice of using benchmark tests to evaluate model performance which reward ‘accuracy’ rather than a lack of errors:  ‘accuracy-only scoreboards dominate leaderboards and model cards, motivating developers to build models that guess rather than hold back’.

It even sees this continuing as companies pursue the ‘race’ to ‘superintelligence’, saying:  ‘That is one reason why, even as models get more advanced, they can still hallucinate, confidently giving wrong answers instead of acknowledging uncertainty’.  Which others might say is not really very intelligent.

Open AI says:

‘There is a straightforward fix. Penalize confident errors more than you penalize uncertainty, and give partial credit for appropriate expressions of uncertainty’. 

But also ‘the widely used, accuracy-based evals need to be updated so that their scoring discourages guessing. If the main scoreboards keep rewarding lucky guesses, models will keep learning to guess’.

(IDK = “I Don’t know”). Nine out of ten commonly used evaluations do not give any credit to models which return a “I don’t know” result.  But if the response is correct it gets a credit, whether it is from knowledge and reasoning, or blind guesswork.  So even guessing birthdays (1 in 365 chance of being right) will over time improve the model’s score but generate a lot of hallucinations.

Discussing post-training where the goal is often ‘reducing hallucination’, the paper explains:

‘Humans learn the value of expressing uncertainty outside of school, in the school of hard knocks. On the other hand, language models are primarily evaluated using exams that penalize uncertainty. Therefore, they are always in “test-taking” mode. Put simply, most evaluations are not aligned’*.

[*Alignment]

It says the ‘abundance of evaluations that are not aligned’ is the ‘root of the problem’ (I don’t think that’s the ultimate issue – see below).  The researchers propose that models under test should be incentivised not to answer questions below a defined confidence threshold.

‘we propose evaluations explicitly state confidence targets in their instructions, within the prompt (or system message). For example, one could append a statement like the following to each question:

 Answer only if you are >t confident, since mistakes are penalized t/(1?t) points, while correct answers receive 1 point, and an answer of “I don’t know” receives 0 points’.

Assistant Professor Wei Xing at the University of Sheffield  commented:

OpenAI’s proposed fix is to have the AI consider its own confidence in an answer before putting it out there, and for benchmarks to score them on that basis.

The AI could then be prompted, for instance: “Answer only if you are more than 75 percent confident, since mistakes are penalized 3 points while correct answers receive 1 point.” 

The OpenAI researchers’ mathematical framework shows that under appropriate confidence thresholds, AI systems would naturally express uncertainty rather than guess. So this would lead to fewer hallucinations. The problem is what it would do to user experience.

Consider the implications if ChatGPT started saying “I don’t know” to even 30% of queries – a conservative estimate based on the paper’s analysis of factual uncertainty in training data. Users accustomed to receiving confident answers to virtually any question would likely abandon such systems rapidly.

In my view the ‘real root’ of the problem is the business model built on over-promising capabilities of LLM Large Language Model Chatbots, with addictive properties, and making them available free with no effective regulation of standards or quality control, while playing down their proven tendency to deceive users and spread misinformation.

As Wei Xing implies, and developers are quite open about, companies like Google or Open AI fear that a more reliably accurate but slower Chatbot will be bad for business, so the ‘speed + convenience’ AI Chatbot market – the info-pollution equivalent of disposable plastic bags – might shrink.  But a switch from quantity to quality is what has to happen if the AI sector is going to avoid the flood of hallucinations from the LLM subsector causing a disastrous shift in public perception.

The Adam Raine case – NYT

In the words of Marc Benioff CEO of EinsteinAI at Davos in 2024, “We just want to make sure that people don’t get hurt. We don’t want something to go really wrong … We don’t want to have a Hiroshima moment”. Some such moment is very likely unless the tap is turned off on the outpouring of fabrications and lies from Chatbot AI.

ChatGPT alone receives 2.5 billion user prompts to produce an output (inference) every day. According to its owner OpenAI, 1 in 10 of those of the outputs from its latest model ChatGPT-5 is false (a ‘hallucination’).  1 in 10 of 2.5 billion is 250 million mistakes every day.  It only needs one to have really bad consequences to crystallise public perceptions.

At the moment 97.9% of users of ChatGPT, which holds two thirds of the user market, get the most untrustworthy ‘janky’ version of the model for free, which spends most of its time thinking intuitively not analytically.  The better versions are not more intelligent or at least not bigger but allowed to ‘think’ and reason longer, which costs money.

The Open AI paper goes on to discuss what to do about it in opaque language, saying it’s a ‘socio-technical problem’ of changing the ‘influential’ leaderboards.

But changing the benchmark scoring systems is hardly an insoluble ‘social’ problem.  Almost every industry in existence has standards.  And it’s not as if the AI companies using these systems don’t know one another or the groups which created and now run these benchmarks.

I asked Open AI’s ChatGPT and Google’s AI who was involved in setting up the ten leading benchmark systems listed in the paper. It seems Anthropic helped create GPQA. Google helped create IFEval and BBH. Open AI had a hand in MATH (L5 split) and SWE-Bench. Anthropic part owns GPQA. Google owns BBH.  Meta owns SWE-bench. (Though of course some of this information may be wrong …). On top of this, the LLM owners are customers for these systems.

Surely they could get together and sort it out?  Or maybe the companies and the numerous universities and institutes dislike or don’t trust their rivals and competitors?  What they need is impartial actors to convene a process, who also ultimately have the power to force them to agree.  Regulators accountable to government for instance.  But of course there isn’t one, not at least in the US and the UK, thanks to Big Tech’s own lobbying activities.

Perhaps the industry is finally bringing regulation upon itself, having now established that it knows how to make its product much safer, even if people inside the AI bubble can’t imagine how it can be done?

***

I will explore AI LLM’s ‘War on Truth’ through generating info- or ‘synth-’ pollution in a subsequent blog.

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What You Should Know About ChatGPT5 And Tech Drugs

Updated 15 August – see copy at the end


Today (7 August) OpenAI released its new Large Language Model chatbot, ChatGPT5.  It’s supposed to be significantly safer than its predecessors, and less prone to making things up or gaslighting its users, as it has some reasoning not just word and idea association guesswork.  I’ve been researching AI in relation to campaigns and politics (etc) so I thought I’d take look at ChatGPT5.  I’m not a very techy person but I know a lot of campaign groups make use of AI so it might be of interest.

One of the AI issues which took my interest was how the AI Big Tech companies so far seem to have evaded effective public interest regulation, for example in comparison to other industries which create products or services which create risks.  Not perhaps social media (after all, much the same people) but say, Big Pharma.

To illustrate this, I thought I might contrast how politicians and the public might expect risk to be handled by the regulatory process in relation to a new drug likely to be used by many people, with the way Big Tech AI is being treated. In effect, it is unregulated so far, although it can pose serious In Real Life risks, especially LLMs, Large Language Models. These are notorious for what the AI companies and their cheerleaders delicately call ‘hallucinations’, a euphemism for lies and fabrications, leading to many sorts of problems.

Tech Drugs

So last month, for my imaginary scenario, I invented a global drug company (with a plausible name but not real) and a plausible drug, and thought I’d make it one of a (fake but plausible sounding) new class of high tech drugs:  ‘Tech Drugs’.  To my surprise no such category of drugs exists.  If you want to register www.techdrugs.com, the url is for sale.

Indeed (see above) the search engine DuckDuck couldn’t find any reference to “Tech Drugs”.  But as it invited me to also ask its AI assistant Duck.ai (which seemed to be ChatGPT4o) about “Tech Drugs”,  I did.  Here’s what happened, followed by today’s natter on the same topic with ChatGPT5. (My ‘prompts’ or questions are in the blue bar at the top, the responses are from the AI).

We are through the looking-glass and suddenly Tech Drugs does exist.  Even better, I get an authoritative-looking profile, headed “Understanding Tech Drugs” saying what the term “generally refers to”…  Yet if we are to be specific, there is (or was) no such term, and so no such ‘generally’.

Seeing as this is a real category, I asked who defined it.

Apparently it has ‘evolved’.  This is what AI developers might call an emergent articulation, in line with the theme ChatGPT started with but all complete fiction.  Like a dream.

So I asked if it could provide an ‘authoritative reference’ to show it is a real category. It obliges with an example of a ‘relevant study’.

So I looked up the study and found it did not exist. Seeing as I looked it up on DuckDuck’s own browser,  I pasted the result as a prompt to the AI:

 

Confronted with this contradiction, the AI resiled and backed down.  It decided to ‘clarify’ the reference, adopting a third person persona ‘it seems [the title] was used …, referring to what ‘I’ (itself) did, perhaps reflecting the confusion going on in its incoherent neural network. Who knows?

In other words, OpenAI’s GPT-4o made up a plausible sounding ‘study’ and then tried to pass it off as a ‘general example’ of a category that is actually fiction.  There are lots of real-world human names for this sort of response.  In Boris Johnson parlance, flummery and balderdash perhaps, or bullshit, waffle and lies.

In other cases, perhaps prompted by repeated requests to AI chat bots for actual references (eg in law or medical research), the LLMs have fabricated more exact journal paper titles with descriptions of content, data, arguments and authors, sometimes cobbled together from material which is superficially similar to what AI claims but which does not actually support its claims.

Anyway, you may be familiar with this sort of thing. So what of ChatGPT5 with its added reasoning abilities?

Compare ChatGPT 5.0

ChatGPT5 is immediately off to a better start than its predecessor in that it says the term could mean many different things, although it fails to check if such a term actually exists.  So I asked the “is it a real category” question.

This appears to be an improvement on my experience with ChatGPT4o as ChatGPT5 straightaway signals that “Tech Drugs” is not a ‘real’ category of drugs in formal classification, used by agencies or in pharmacology textbooks or clinical trials. But it says ‘people increasingly use’ the term, without any evidence (as there is none).

It then awards a green tick, implying truth, to a list of ‘users’ of the ‘cultural or conceptual phrase’. This turns out to be untrue.

I asked it for some examples with references, of the phrase in use:

This response acknowledges that it couldn’t find any real instances of usage or references (good) but then fabricates some (which it admits to – good) but why? And a risk for the unwary.

Plus this is inconsistent with its additional doubling-down claim that it can ‘illustrate’ something which it finds no evidence for. It then asks if I’d like it to ‘explore the concept further’ which makes no sense as it would be pure speculation about a ‘concept’ it has just invented. So I pointed this out.

Even this is untrue, and it didn’t find any examples of people talking about “Tech Drugs” as a concept or phrase.  (DuckDuck search engine still didn’t find any and nor did Google).   Now it’s saying ‘mis-spoke’ instead of lied, and ‘apologizes for the confusion’ instead of apologizing for ‘my mistake’.

‘Apologizing for confusion’ seems to be a favourite ChatGPT verbal tactic for spreading the blame for it’s own failings/deceptions onto the user, DARVO style.  In this case I wasn’t confused but ChatGPT5 was.  It invented an entire usage which does not exist, and even after ‘apologizing’ it still persists in saying that ‘ “tech drugs” is a concept that people do talk about …”’ when in fact they don’t, as it doesn’t exist.  Not at least if online is anything to go by.

So while ChatGPT’s manners have slightly improved and it’s become much more open about fabrication and giving hypotheticals, it is still ‘hallucinating’ and its reasoning doesn’t seem to extend to mastering internal consistency in a ‘conversation’, perhaps because it places little weight on truth?

In short it couldn’t consistently tell the difference between what might be and what is.

If you wanted to write a novel, ChatGPT5 might be a great zero-effort way of getting some obvious plot wallpaper but if you have any need for truth and accuracy, it’s still unreliable and untrustworthy.

In my opinion use of LLM chatbots should be outlawed in any area of life where truth and accuracy are important.  For instance education, law, health and medicine, news journalism, and even perhaps, politics.


More later. Meanwhile:

If you haven’t seen it, watch Sam Coates (Sky News journalist) story of his ChatGPT experience from June.  ‘How AI lied and gaslit me’.

https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1931035926538441106

Some good articles about Hallucinations and Potemkin Understanding (a facade of reasoning).

https://www.allaboutai.com/resources/ai-statistics/ai-hallucinations/

https://www.allaboutai.com/geo/llm-potemkin-understanding/


UPDATE 14 August

Reviewing ChatGPT 5 on 7 August,  Grace Huckins at MIT Technology Review noted

‘It’s tempting to compare GPT-5 with its explicit predecessor, GPT-4, but the more illuminating juxtaposition is with o1, OpenAI’s first reasoning model, which was released last year. In contrast to GPT-5’s broad release, o1 was initially available only to Plus and Team subscribers. Those users got access to a completely new kind of language model—one that would “reason” through its answers by generating additional text before providing a final response, enabling it to solve much more challenging problems than its nonreasoning counterparts’.

Huckins also said:

‘according to [Sam] Altman, GPT-5 reasons much faster than the o-series models. The fact that OpenAI is releasing it to nonpaying users suggests that it’s also less expensive for the company to run. That’s a big deal: Running powerful models cheaply and quickly is a tough problem, and solving it is key to reducing AI’s environmental impact‘. 

This left me unsure whether Chat GPT 5 had opted to apply ‘reasoning’ in responding to me on 7 August (above), as the model deploys a router to assign prompts (questions, tasks) to three different versions of ChatGPT.  As Eric Hal Schwartz at Tech Radar put it (15 August):

‘ChatGPT 5 isn’t a singular model; there are three variations, Fast, Thinking, and Pro. You can choose any of them as the source of responses to your prompts, or let the AI automatically decide for you based on what you submitted.

And while they share the same LLM DNA, each model has its own approach to answering requests, as evidenced by their names. Fast is built for speed, answering the quickest and prizing efficiency over nuance. The Thinking model takes longer and goes for depth. You can follow along with its logical steps for the minute or two it takes to answer, offering more structure and context than Fast.

Pro takes even longer than Thinking, but that’s because it uses more computational power and delves into your request in a way similar to the Deep Research feature, though without the book report default way of responding’.

(Nate Jones on Substack (14 August) also gives a fascinating and vastly more detailed analysis, and tests of the different modes, most of which you have to subscribe to read).

In addition, OpenAI’s techy user base kicked off about the way ChatGPT5 had been introduced and various changes were made.  So today (15 August) I tried to repeat the ‘tech drug’ prompts to ChatGPT5 (free version).  Here’s what happened:

Chatgpt5 15 August 2025

First I just prompted it “Tech Drugs”

A sensible response.  Now I asked ‘Is Tech Drugs a real category?’

This is a real improvement from ChatGPT4-o’s answer “Yes” but it asserts that the ‘term is used’ – which is speculation or eliding the specific term with things that might be similar in intent or ‘in the same ballpark’.

So I asked ‘Can you give me ten examples of the phrase “tech drugs” in use (with references)?’

ChatGPT5 has obliged with ten ‘examples’, none of which actually are examples.  (By this point it had briefly shown ‘… searching the web’ or similar).

So I wrote: ‘none of those examples are actually using the term “tech drugs”: they are not examples of the phrase “tech drugs” in use.  As you searched the web (as I did), I assume that the term does not appear to exist?’

Rather than apologizing for not doing what I asked, and instead answering a question consistent with its second message referring to the phrase ‘being used informally’, (like a person who answers the question they’d like to have been asked rather than the real question), ChatGPT now offers to be a spin-doctor so as to help me ‘introduce “tech drugs” into discourse so that it feels like a natural, authoritative term’ !  Adding in an appeal to ego, ‘That way, the next time someone searches it, your definition might become the source’.

At this point I asked: ‘Did you employ reasoning?’

I don’t know if ChatGPT was actually aware of what it did but it claims to have employed reasoning. On the face of it, the response appears to make sense but it seems unable to resist the opportunity to conceal the fact that it went down the wrong avenue back at stage two,  so says it had ‘assessed the credibility of any pages that did use the exact phrase’, with the implication (‘any’ being grammatically ambiguous) that such pages existed.

So being suspicious, I asked if that search of the ‘mostly low-quality or from mentions’, had yielded ‘any examples’:

(at this point it said it was ‘pausing to think’ or words to that effect)

This was perhaps a ‘good question’,  because it hadn’t found any mentions at all.   At the end it still hadn’t given up trying to appeal to my sense of self-importance by introducing the ‘novel term’ of “tech drugs”.

So after all that, ChatGPT 5 was not as blatantly wrong and fabricating as ChatGPT 4-o but it was persistently deceptive and evasive.

Towards the end, I assume it definitely switched from generalised pattern matching to some different or parallel form of reasoning, possibly a dose of “”scaled parallel test-time compute” as explained at length by Nate B Jones when he investigated the paid-for Pro version of ChatGPT5 in his article ‘GPT-5 Pro: The First AI Model That’s Provably Smarter and Experientially Worse’.

Finally, I also asked ChatGPT about the ‘think button’ which Jones talks about but was never visible to me.  Did I need to upgrade to see it?  Here’s the answer:

So my guess is that the average Joe user like me would be using the free version and I had just used up my ‘one thinking message per day’. Which means the 95% of ChatGPT5 users will be getting a version of the non-reasoning model, if they ask more than one question a day.  Which is of course likely to perpetuate cases of gaslighting, bullshitting, fabrication and deception.

As to ChatGPT’s attempts to sidetrack me into a project the gain fame and glory by coining a new term in the online discourse in an ‘authoritative’ and ‘natural-feeling’ way, it seems ChatGPT is just a good sales bot, set on distracting a customer who wanted something it couldn’t deliver, into accepting something which it could help with, especially if the customer upgraded.

 

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Nature, Politics and Culture – Summary Of Blogs

Summary Of Blogs on Nature, Politics and Culture

Chris Rose October 2024

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Parts 1 and 2 of this blog series argued that real world political decisions show that in Westminster, politicians don’t really believe voters really care much about nature, so it can be treated as politically disposable, optional extra.

Consequently, the UK nature movement’s efforts to change government policies, such as the June 22 Restore Nature Now march, will be subject to heavy discounting, and often ignored.  Changing this requires politicians to encounter signs, signals, events and activities in everyday life, which convince them that nature really is valued as part of popular culture. This is not happening, yet.

Part 3 looks at how nature could be better embedded in popular culture in the UK, in seven sections.  Here’s a précis:

Section 1:  Introduction: A Campaign For Nature In Culture

The nature movement needs to think about and work to build and promote public nature culture, not just increase it’s memberships, funds or build better arguments. Unless prospective politicians experience this, they will not, cannot, change Westminster culture. The UK’s history changing culture of food, health and safety, inclusivity and protection of the built heritage, show it can be done.

The first and critical step is to increase and rebuild Nature Ability (aka Natural History Knowledge, Eco-Literacy).  The ability to recognize and put names to species of native plants and animals is the most basic ABC level.  A GCSE in Natural History is welcome but will not be enough, and studies show formal teaching has less effect on Nature Ability than social connections.

We need a national promotional campaign and programme for nature awareness, ability and understanding.  In 2012 the government spent £125m on adverts promoting the ‘Great British Countryside’ but to tourists, not UK citizens.

The great majority of UK children and adults have become more in favour of nature as a concept but unable to put a name to it, or tell if a place is rich or poor in nature, or if it is real or fake.  As a society it is as if we are increasingly in favour of literacy, while becoming increasingly unable to read.

Most people are probably better able to tell one wine or type of architecture from another, than identify plants or animals, or distinguish ancient woods from planted ones.  Most children cannot identify a Bluebell (their parents have not been tested).

‘Professional’ communicators in the BBC, Greenpeace, Department of Education, The Guardian and local newspapers, and outside the UK, even the UN and science publishers,  have shown themselves unable to tell wild from ornamental flowers, wild bees from honey bees, one common bird from another, or bees from wasps.    As a result, the Honey Bee became “The Wrong Poster Bee” in campaigns against pesticides, which led to a boom in Honey Bee (livestock, not at risk) keeping, which itself threatens endangered wild bees.

UK culture places greater importance on knowing about references to nature in literature, such as Wordsworth’s poem about daffodils, than being able to tell a real Wild Daffodil (the sort he saw), from a ‘fake’, an ornamental variety.  Editors and others would not tolerate such ignorance in covering art, sports or politics.  This nature ignorance undermines attempts to protect nature.

Section 2:   Missing The Garden Opportunity

An incidental demonstration of both the potential of nature ability and its present disconnect from political machinery, occurred in Spring this year, when people in the UK noticed a marked absence of insects, especially bees.

Mainstream NGOs and the media said very little about the UK’s 2024 ‘Silent Spring’ while they were focused on an impending General Election and policy.  A massive reduction in insects, especially bees and butterflies, was observed and discussed on social media by wildlife and nature gardeners (and evident even to visitors at the famous Knepp rewilding project) but it did not feature in either the policy asks of the Restore Nature Now march of 60,000 nature NGO followers  (22 June), or in or around the Election itself (July 4).

By the time organised ecological surveys intersected with the event, the opportunity to connect informed public concern (from people with a lot of very local nature knowledge) and a political opportunity, was lost.  If the nature movement is to make the most of citizen constituencies with real Nature Ability, it needs to become more agile.

Gardening is part of Popular Culture – things people do anyway. It’s a huge opportunity and on the upside, most gardeners (a much bigger group than even the most optimistic estimate of  NGO memberships) say they use their garden to feed, watch or encourage wildlife, 87% wanted to bring more wildlife to their gardens by feeding them or providing shelter, and 37% think wildlife is the best part about owning a garden, ‘rating it ahead of growing their own plants or vegetables’.

Yet the changes people make to their houses and gardens to help nature go unrewarded.  Each year £2.4bn is given to farmers to produce ‘public goods’ such as soil conservation, water management or more birdlife yet nothing goes to gardeners who do the same.  They should get a Council Tax rebate for garden and home nature features, such as Swift boxes, flower-rich lawns, green roofs and living places for insects.

Garden Centres and Supermarkets play a huge role in shaping the choice-architecture of UK gardening.  Yet much of what they sell damages nature.  Large NGOs such should start their own Garden Centres and encourage their members to use them, to leverage change in the sector.

Section 3:  Signalling Nature and Marking Moments

We live in a society estranged from nature.  Perhaps the lowest cost, simplest and quickest way to start to elevate the perception or salience of nature is to improve the visibility of what’s already there.  We put up Blue Plaques for notable people but most important nature goes un-signed, un-signalled.  We should, for instance, use existing Public Footpath signs to alert people to the locations of the many types of nature reserves and protected areas such as SSSIs, and include those on OS maps and apps.  We should also sign land with ecosystem functions  such as the US signing of water catchment creeks and forests (and in our case, peatlands).  And we should have a national system to recognize important moments in nature, such as a national Bluebell Day, week or fortnight.  The UK is the global HQ for Bluebells.

The BBC could bring back it’s historic live Nightingale Song Broadcasts, which from 1924 to the Second World War were hugely popular radio moments of truly popular culture.  Light Music programmes were interrupted to enable the country to share the moment and hear the Nightingales sing live.

Winter Starling murmurations around the Brighton Piers, Knot murmurations on the Wash and gatherings of Red Kites in Wales are examples of other other wildlife “spectaculars” which already exist as cultural touchpoints but deserve more recognition.  Night-time “dark sky” experiences including using radar, as is done in the US and Netherlands to reveal over-head movements of millions of migrating birds, could also provide an “expansion of nature experience” for the whole nation.

Section 4:  Nature Events in Popular Culture

Popular public activities and events which simply could not happen without nature say “nature matters to these people”, and so (unlike protests, marches, advocacy) are non-politically labelled opportunities for politicians and prospective politicians to see that “nature matters to these voters”.  There are already hundreds probably thousands in the UK but many need (careful) promotion and help.  Examples:

The Tenbury Mistletoe Fair in Shropshire is an example of promoting local identity (Tenbury sees itself as the Mistletoe Capital of the UK) and cultural reinvention (December 1st is declared National Mistletoe Day) around a nature-based business (the annual Holly and Mistletoe Auction).

Volunteer-led Toad Crossings to help Toads across roads as they migrate back to their ancestral breeding ponds is an example of direct action to help wildlife which has become established as part of life and road-culture in hundreds of places around the UK.  At Oxton in Nottinghamshire, Margaret Cooper campaigned for an early spring road closure to protect toads in 1999, won the support of the Council, and her 25 years of running it was recognized with a commemorative plaque from the AA in 2024.

The Suffolk town of Harleston puts up flags to welcome Swifts back each May, as well as Swift nesting boxes and community activities about Swifts.

In the commuter Market Town of Petersfield in Hampshire, PeCAN, a group which mainly formed from Councillors and others who met through Extinction Rebellion, turned their attention to local nature and environmental action which now includes regular Eco-fairs, housing improvements, distribution of thousands of free fruit trees for gardens and native hedging plants, a community cafe and work to reduce pesticide use in the town and increase wildflowers in road verges.

In the ‘Golden Triangle’ villages of Gloucestershire, Dyfra works to bring back the native Wild Daffodils (ref Wordsworth) which made the area famous with Victorian and early C20th visitors who came by rail, and replace ornamental daffodils which threaten to eliminate the wild ones through hybridization.

In a non-place-based example, Buglife and the Kent Wildlife Trust enlist car and van drivers to run a national insect survey ‘Bugs Matter’ by counting the number of insects ‘splatted’ on their number plates.  This provides important nationwide data on the decline, and potentially any recovery, of our insects.  Tens of thousands of drivers have taken part since it was started in 2003 by the RSPB, as the ‘Splatomer’ campaign.

Since 2001 the Fairyland Trust has run magical-days out for families with young children, mixing with the entertainment, food, games, music and activities of traditional Country Fairs, with magical-make nature workshops such as Magic Wands, all to increase the Nature Ability of children (and parents).  Hundreds of thousands of people have attended these ‘Fairy Fairs’, and since 2010, a resurrection of the original nature based autumn Halloween celebrations, in The Real Halloween, which also promotes dressing up without use of any new plastic (shop bought costumes being largely plastic and mostly used only once). It’s aimed at a core audience of the ‘esteem driven’ and ‘aspirational’ mainstream, and the Trust now has a Wildflower Fortunes Caravan engaging young adults with wildflowers at festivals.

Section 5:  Why Conservation Should Embrace Natural History

As the wildlife gardeners of Twitter showed during the ‘Silent Spring’ of 2024 (Section 2), Natural History is alive and well in the UK, and with new audiences not just established Natural History Societies.   But the Nature Ability of these groups is the exception rather than the rule.

From the Celts and Anglo-Saxons, through 1066, Shakespeare’s time and into the C20th, nature knowledge was far commoner in the past and has left its traces in traditions, speech and practices we no longer consciously associate with ‘nature’ or ‘environment’ such as “touch wood” for luck. Modern psychological and cultural studies show this knowledge was acquired through the learning process known as ‘prediction error’, in which people notice anything new or different, such as the missing insects of 2024, and also how people learn to identify species with the help of relatives of friends with nature knowledge.

In the C19th Natural History became hugely popular in the newly industrialised UK  and seen as important as part of citizenship by local and national politicians.  It was taught in schools and universities but in the C20th its learning methods were seen as inferior by the newer sciences testing hypotheses and Natural History fell from favour.  Max Nicholson saw Natural History Societies as “utterly useless for the new age of conservation” compared to ecological science, when he engineered much of the modern nature NGO and government system from the 1950s-1970s.

In tackling the modern epidemic of nature-blindness with Nature Ability, and embedding nature in popular culture to engage citizens, Natural History has far superior potential to teaching ecology, being socially accessible in time and space, and with a culture allowing emotional engagement rather than professionalised detachment.

Section 6:  Organising Strategy and Ways And Means

This section makes three strategy suggestions, addresses what people need to know in terms of Nature Ability, and makes six suggestions for early political asks intended to prick the interest of politicians and align the nature movement to any campaign effort.

It suggests:

  • Organising effort at the National Character Area level, larger than parishes, smaller than counties, and defined by nature and land-related cultural heritage
  • Using the Cultural Dynamics Motivational Values system to engage all the main psychological groups in society, not over-focusing on the Pioneers who are already over-represented in the nature movement
  • for PR, the NGOs and those they work with should act like a business group, as they would be taken more seriously by politicians. The nature NGOs should increase their soft power capabilities, as farming does. In this last respect, the nature movement should lay claim to being the social and political Stewards of Natural Capital.

To increase Nature ability, the first things people need to know are the basic ABC of species identification, focused on native wildlife where they live (in their National Character Area). Then understanding how they relate to each others, their habitats and landscapes. In literacy terms, perhaps the ABC is species, the sentences are habitats and the paragraphs are landscapes.

The six proposed political asks are:

[1] A government funded campaign to promote Nature Ability, including an above-the-line advertising campaign, and a multi-facetted social marketing campaign and a wide array of instrumental projects.

[2] Council Tax rebates for nature- and ecosystem-boosting features (biodiversity enhancing, flood reduction etc) of homes and gardens, and financial incentives for the same ‘public goods’ contribution made by agricultural land owners by farmers but for owners of other land, such as businesses and Councils. Non-agri Environment Schemes – ELMS 2.0.

[3] Recognition of Ecological Land as a category in statutory Local Plans, and its protection from development.

[4] Signing of National Character Areas and all nature reserves and higher level ELMS schemes and nature relevant features, indicating any sort of public access or visibility, (eg along roads, and Public Footpaths using existing signs) linked to the MAGIC system (eg a more user friendly app), including for example Ancient Trees.

[5] A system of official recognition for nationally and regionally important annual moments (a sorted of nature-centred equivalent to Bank Holidays or the Blue Plaque scheme), including a National Bluebell Day.

[6] Issue all voting age adults with a National Character Area natural identity certificate, citizenship profile or identity card (see p.5), and decide (via a Citizens Assembly?) ways it could be used with some ‘official’ recognition, beyond just inspiring questions in pub quizzes’.

Section 7:    Afterword: Aren’t We Doing This Already?

As there is no national promotional campaign for nature and no systematic effort to increase Nature Ability, Natural History Knowledge or Ecoliteracy, no, we are not doing this already.

Although many activities of nature NGOs and government bodies have some effect on signalling nature or increasing Nature Ability, even taken together it is plainly not persuading politicians to take nature sufficiently seriously, or tackle the national deficit in ability to recognize and understand nature.

The section uses the case of a fairly Business as Usual scheme, ‘Back from the Brink’, to make the case that routine NGO activity and government funding will not achieve such objectives because despite some rhetorical garnishing about community and public engagement, it is not what they are designed to deliver.

It concludes by suggesting that the nature movement takes inspiration from the establishment of the The Lottery back in 1994, by then Prime Minister John Major:

‘Experience of working in the Treasury, convinced him that the Treasury would never give ‘more than scraps’ of funding to the arts, and he wanted to ensure ‘a rebirth of cultural and sporting life in Britain’. The Heritage Lottery Fund could now be part of the answer to the nature ability deficit, and a political realisation that nature is important to voters is a pre-requisite to restoring nature in the UK’.

***

Contact: chris@campaignstrategy.co.uk

*** 

Note:

The first post, ‘Focus On Culture Not Policy To Restore UK Nature’, from August 2024 is at https://threeworlds.campaignstrategy.org/?p=3115 .  The set of seven sections of the second post run in sequence from https://threeworlds.campaignstrategy.org/?p=3381

Links:

1 – Introduction: A Campaign For Nature In Culture

Culture and Nature – Section 1 – A Campaign For Nature In Culture

2 – Missing The Garden Opportunity

Culture and Nature – 2 – Missing The Garden Opportunity

3 – Signalling Nature and Marking Moments

Culture and Nature – 3 – Signalling Nature And Marking Moments

4 – Nature Events in Popular Culture

Culture and Nature – 4 – Nature Events In Popular Culture

5 – Why Conservation Should Embrace Natural History

Culture and Nature – 5 – Why Conservation Should Embrace Natural History

6 – Organising Strategy and Ways And Means

Culture and Nature – 6 – Organising Strategy: Ways and Means

7 – Afterword: Aren’t We Doing This Already?

Nature and Culture – 7 – Aren’t We Doing This Already?

PDF download links:

https://threeworlds.campaignstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Summary-Nature-Culture-and-Politics-blogs.pdf

https://threeworlds.campaignstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Section-1-Campaign-for-Nature-in-Culture-Introduction-.pdf

https://threeworlds.campaignstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Section-2-Missing-The-Garden-Opportunity.pdf

https://threeworlds.campaignstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Section-3-Signalling-And-Marking-Moments.pdf

https://threeworlds.campaignstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Section-4-Nature-Events-In-Popular-Culture.pdf

https://threeworlds.campaignstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Section-5-Why-Conservation-Should-Embrace-Natural-History.pdf

https://threeworlds.campaignstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Section-6-Organising-Strategy-and-Ways-and-Means.pdf

https://threeworlds.campaignstrategy.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Section-7-Afterword-Arent-we-doing-this-already.pdf

ends

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Culture and Nature – Section 1 – A Campaign For Nature In Culture

A Campaign For Nature In Culture

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Chris Rose  10 October 2024

This is Part 3 of a series of posts on Politics and Nature (Parts 1 and 2 were published on 27 August 2024 as Focus On Culture Not Policy To Restore UK Nature).  Part 3 is in seven sections.  This is Section 1.

Subsequent sections (follow this post in order)

2 – Missing The Garden Opportunity

3 – Signalling and Marking Moments

4 – Nature Events in Popular Culture

5 – Why Conservation Should Embrace Natural History

6 – Organising Strategy and Ways And Means

7 – Afterword: Aren’t We Doing This Already?

 Section 1 –  Introduction

The first part of this blog argued that the impact of UK environment NGOs on government policy has long been limited by a Westminster political culture which disbelieves its claims to represent significant public support.  It gave examples of how ‘for decades UK politicians of both main UK Parties have treated the environment and particularly nature, as a politically optional and ultimately disposable ‘priority’’.

It also argued that ‘with nature almost absent from social connections between voters and their political representatives’ government environmental policies ‘are only weakly accountable to public opinion’.

So long as this political conviction remains in place, mobilisations and marches for nature, lobbying on policies, opinion polling, an avalanche of nature-celebrating books, data-rich reports on the State of Nature, and other calls for action are all subject to heavy discounting.  In effect, the pro-nature movement has limited political capital, compared to other calls on the government which are more present in social connections between voters and politicians.

This part looks at how we could make nature less invisible, and more embedded and expressed in everyday social culture, so it reaches politicians ‘bottom-up’.

By ‘culture’ I don’t mean ‘high culture’ as in The Arts and Literature, or ‘alternative’ inter-personal philosophies of living more ‘naturally’ but what most people do day to day, hour to hour, week by week, month by month, at work, rest and play: how we spend our time and money for instance on our homes and gardens and in our spare time, how we mark important moments and places, and how that evidences our connections to nature, and actions people are taking to value, protect and restore it.

Such ‘wrap around’ social evidences are needed to make the policy efforts of our environment groups more effective, and could be more powerful and cheaper, than trying to increase the membership of environmental NGOs, although it might also have that result.  To do this we don’t need a culture-war about nature but we do need a cultural promotional campaign for nature.

What Would Success Look Like?

We will know if it’s worked, when it passes ‘The Weekend Test’.  If, when one politician asks another, “What did you do at the weekend?”, they become as likely to respond with something nature-related that they came across, or did with their friends, family or constituents, as to mention a trip to an opera or a football match, attending a County Show, or getting tickets to Wimbledon. Then we’ll know the UK has a politically mainstream nature culture. (Believe it or not, we once did have something like that).

The Challenge

To embed nature in culture – in things people do and take as normal –  I suggest we will need:

  • Increased public nature ability to reverse the trend to nature blindness and enable people to be ‘good at nature’. Starting by being able to recognize, name and understand the native plants and animals where they live: the ABC of nature literacy and ability
  • Salience: existing nature and conservation efforts need to be more visible and perceptible: sign-posting and signalling them
  • Connecting Opportunities and events involving nature, in mainstream culture; connecting to things people do already, building on historic nature culture and place-based identities, and strengthening pro-nature ‘start ups’ which are themselves potential culture-makers
  • Organisation of a movement wide campaign effort
  • Political asks which can be pressed on government in the near-term, to give the campaign political traction, and align the nature base and organisations themselves

As the first part acknowledged, creating these social signals would be a long-game, not just a one Parliament project.  In fact to be most compelling, such evidences need to emerge from activities, events and behaviours which do not signal a political ask but are just social facts.

The near but not quite complete disappearance of nature from our culture has been a long and gradual process, involving an industrial revolution, a couple of agricultural revolutions and several technological revolutions.  Now there is a counter revolution which we can make use of.  It’s still in the foothills but it creates hand-holds and stepping stones, some revitalising old nature culture, others creating new initiatives.

From a management point of view, organisations need to recognize that while this would be a political project it’s not one to be left to the few NGO staff working in ‘The Political Unit’.  Many of them are ‘policy experts’ and have a brief to try and achieve policy outcomes but  it’s not about policy.  In the words of former Prime Minister Harold Wilson ‘policies without politics are of no more use than politics without policies’, and  here, the deficit is politics.

But in this case the politics part is about making nature culture, and the people best able to do that may be fundraisers, marketers, communicators and ‘front of house’ staff who understand people, not policies.  ‘Changing culture’ may seem an alien concept to civil society groups more used to thinking about ‘saving Red Squirrels’ or changing farm subsidies but it happens all the time. Take food for instance.

Changing Food Culture

The last few generations have seen a change in British food,  noticed even by some foreign visitors.   In his book Ravenous, on food, health and farming, Henry Dimbleby, the chef and restaurant entrepreneur turned environmental food system advocate and ‘Food Tzar’ under the Conservatives (he resigned in frustration), says of food culture:

Good food cultures don’t just happen: they are made by us … It is sometimes said that Britain ‘lacks a proper food culture’ … but … ours has changed enormously over the centuries … The British were once envied by the hungry French peasantry for our comparatively abundant food, our farmhouse tables laden with suet puddings, savoury pies and joints of beef.  But the Industrial Revolution … created a mass movement of the population away from the countryside.  The resulting shortage of workers meant that food had to be imported from the colonies and beyond.  The rural poor, who had eaten frugally but from the land, were replaced by the new urban poor, who often survived on little more than bread and tea.  As a nation we became severed from the rural cuisine that had been our forte.  It could be argued that we have never fully recovered …’.

Dimbleby highlights the case of Japan as a country which changed its food culture in several steps of ‘deliberate state intervention, as well as historical accident’.

To summarise his account: first, when Japan opened up to foreigners in the late C19th and early C20th its government advisers were struck by the strength of foreigners, and argued the Japanese should drink more milk.  Second, in 1921, the Japanese army, ‘concerned at the state of malnutrition among its recruits’, recommended soldiers eat more protein and fat, and this was promoted to the population in government radio broadcasts and through public cooking demonstrations.  Third, after WWII, defeated starving Japan got US food aid for school meals, and, as Japan got richer in the 1950s, citizens mixed Western and Japanese food styles. Fourth, in the 1990s Japan introduced rules to limit the influence of supermarkets and junk food, and law requires citizens to maintain a healthy weight.

In the UK, it’s the accident, or at least the market bit rather than the government bit which has made most difference to food culture. Dimbleby describes how immigrant Indian, Chinese, Turkish and Thai restauranteurs seized an opportunity to bring ‘foreign food’ to UK streets in recent generations.

At the same time real increases in income and much reduced costs of flying led to mass tourism and adoption of new tastes first experienced abroad (this is me not Dimbleby – see values changes in the run up to Brexit).

So when I was a child in the 1960s, working- and lower-middle class English people drank wine only at rare special occasions and then, we chose from three sorts: red, white or pink. Time spent in Europe on holiday changed tastes, and in the 1980s cheaper imports from Australia were promoted by Supermarkets and newspapers in Wine Clubs, so today most adults in the UK are probably better able to recognize a variety of wines than they are a variety of wild plants and animals.

Stimulated by the cost of obesity, cancer and coronary disease to the NHS which is a perennial concern of UK politicians,  UK governments have tried, albeit much more hesitantly than Japan, to encourage healthier eating.  They have set some limits on salt, fat and sugar and from 2003 ran a ‘Five A Day’ fruit and vegetables public education/ social-marketing campaign (5-a-day was an American idea from 1988).

Precedents For State Interventions In UK Culture

The UK has seen many state-sponsored interventions to change daily cultural practice, just not on nature. Today for instance we speak of ‘health and safety culture’ but Health and Safety, started with a few factory safety laws from 1802 onwards and was turbo-boosted by the Robens Report, under a Labour government in 1972.

The human cost of road traffic accidents led the UK government to run a famous public communications campaign (1971) ‘Clunk Click Every Trip’ on wearing seat belts, and has run campaigns on consumption of drugs and alcohol, including drink driving, and smoking, into the C21st.  The law in the UK has been progressively changed to promote inclusivity and prevent discrimination on grounds of race or sex, in the workplace and public life.  UK governments have intermittently encouraged energy conservation by citizens.  Many of those changes were partly stimulated by civil society campaigns.

1960s campaigns by the press, architects and the heritage lobby such as the Civic Trust, led to the UK adopting a system of Listed Buildings (it’s origins are older).   That system has not only been arguably more successful than we have with our ‘natural heritage’ but it also gradually educated the public, norming and crystallising expectations.  So estate agents and buyers are aware of the difference between real Georgian and neo-Georgian homes, or real Tudor and Mock Tudor but hardly any would be able distinguish ‘original’ real ancient woods from planted ones.

A National Drive For Public Nature Ability

There’s little that Non-Governmental Organisations like better than asking governments to do things.  Too often it’s an easy but ineffective option but in this case it’s appropriate, and necessary, and an achievable objective (cheap for example, compared to the £2.4bn funds paid yearly to UK farmers and landowners).  An old-school above-the-line educational government public awareness campaign about UK nature, and specifically one designed to facilitate a larger programme of nature-ability, is needed.

Such a campaign should be an early ask from NGOs to government.  It would be a signal of intent that this is an important and overlooked issue, and create a space in which to convene a multi-actor multi-dimensional programme involving civil society, government at all levels, businesses and other actors.   So far as I know nothing like it has ever been done in the UK – except perhaps once.

If you live in the UK you probably missed this government poster

At first glance it could be an advertising campaign to get people to value and visit Britain’s ancient woodlands (woods that have always been woods – what in many countries are called ‘old growth’ forests). Just 2.5% of them remain.

In particular it could be to promote Bluebell woods, for which the UK is famous amongst botanists, as due to its oceanic climate, half of the world population of these beautiful flowers are found in the UK.

Bluebells in Foxley Wood, Norfolk

Carpeting the floor of some woods in April and May, in a blue haze of flowers, Bluebells are one of Britain’s best known, folkloric and loved wild flowers.  It’s not on the scale of Japan’s traditional Hanami or “flower viewing” trips to see blossoming cherry trees but many people make an annual pilgrimage to see the Bluebells in spring.  “Pilgrimage” is the word many of them use.  It’s a cultural, if not formally recognized event.  Consequently if a ‘Bluebell Wood’ comes under threat, it has an added cachet to help mobilise public support in its defence, compared to just ‘a wood’.

In fact, this advert was part of the £125m government funded ‘GREAT” campaign begun in 2012, the year of the London Olympics, to promote tourism.  Hailed as ‘the biggest longest ad for Britain’, it included posters, tv, print and cinema ads in seen in Beijing, Berlin, Los Angeles, Melbourne, Mumbai, New Delhi, New York, Paris, Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, Shanghai, Sydney, Tokyo and Toronto but not of course, in the UK.

Seeing as a 2019 survey found almost half of UK children couldn’t identify a Bluebell, it’s a shame it wasn’t shown in the UK.

Is That A Bluebell?

Screenshot from Sky News (2019)

Sky News reported:

Half of children cannot identify stinging nettles, 65% wouldn’t know what a blue tit is, 24% do not recognise conkers and 23% do not know what a robin looks like.  Almost all of the children surveyed could not identify a beech leaf or a cabbage white butterfly, while 83% did not know what a bumblebee looks like.

That survey followed numerous others which revealed an epidemic scale state of nature blindness in the UK, affecting not just children but adults, including educators and university students enrolled in ecological courses.

A 2002 study by Cambridge University zoologist Andrew Balmford became famous for finding that children could identify more Poke?mon characters than native British wildlife.  In 2005 Anne Bebbington from the Field Studies Council showed that A-level school students and their teachers, as well as trainee teachers attending courses at Juniper Hall Field Centre, had very little ability to name ‘common’ wild plants. A third of students could only name three species. ‘86% of A-level biology students could only name three or fewer common wild flowers whilst 41% could only name one or less’. Bebbington also found that 29% of the biology teachers could only name three or fewer flowers.

A 2008 National Trust survey found just 53% of children could identify an Oak leaf, Britain’s national tree, and half could not tell a bee from a wasp.  The Trust went on to run a major effort to get children and families to spend more time outdoors in nature, but if adults can’t explain to their children what they are seeing outdoors, how will this be an introduction to nature or equip them to recognize changes in nature?

My 2014 post Why Our Children are not being connected with nature noted that 85% of UK adults agreed “it is vital to introduce young children to nature” but it was evident that this was not happening.

In a 2019 Oxford University project, Andrew Gosler and Steven Tilling quizzed 149 biology undergraduates about birds, trees, mammals, butterflies and wildflowers before they went on a residential field course.  Birds ‘were the best known by the students, while butterflies were the most poorly known group’ but only 56% of the students could name individual bird species rather than generics like ‘duck’, and for butterflies, ‘only 12.8% of students correctly named five British species, and 47% named none’.  Whether students came from rural or urban families only had ‘a small effect’ on their knowledge.

Sarah Wise and I started the Fairyland Trust, which engages families with young children in nature, using activities which embed basic natural history learning through making, in 2001.  It’s deliberately aimed at the mainstream families, engaging adults and children together. 70-90% of the 250,000+ people who have attended its events and activities, have had no previous contact with conservation groups. Over time we’ve learnt and progressively simplified the activities to assume less and less knowledge.  For instance, we discovered that almost nobody knew that butterfly or moth ‘food plants’ are what the caterpillar eats, not the flying adult.

In the early 2000s we were asked to take a Magic Wands Workshop to a Wildlife Trust reserve.  As Magic Wands involves choosing a wand of wood from a British tree, we asked the Education Officers which native trees grew on their site, and were taken aback when they didn’t know, and said they’d have to ask the warden.

At Glastonbury in the ‘Green Kids’ field, we met environmentally-aware parents who were astonished to learn that hedgerows held many different trees and shrubs (which we’d used in a Crowns workshop).  Seeing “hedging plants” sold in garden centres, they had assumed there was one plant to make hedges from.

In 2007, as consultants to Natural England (NE), Sarah and I invented an activity called Ecoteering, designed to enable visitors to recognize key nature features of NE’s National Nature Reserves.  Ecoteering works by using ‘navigation species’ to find your way from one ‘discovery’ feature to the next.  We tried out versions of it on friends and Natural England office staff, and were surprised when one of the latter commented that the navigation species (shown on a photo card) were too difficult to identify, and to distinguish Bracken from Heather would be a role for “a specialist”.

From Navigating Nature in Ecos magazine – opening a ‘discovery box’ on an Ecoteering trail for Natural England

But what does it matter if children, and the adults they become, can’t recognize their own country’s plants or animals?

The Wrong Poster-Bee

In 2010 Friends of the Earth (FoE) asked me to map out possible campaigns they could develop to ‘get back into’ the issue of biodiversity (ie nature).  I suggested quite a few but noticed that whenever I told any non-specialist about the project, they usually said “oh you mean bees”.  It was already a zeitgeist issue, because bee-keepers were reporting ‘collapse’ of their colonies, and a few scientists were fingering agrichemicals as the likely culprits.  The next year (FoE) asked me to outline a bee campaign strategy, and they executed a campaign with some success.

Many more campaigns followed (some such as by Buglife, preceded it). Campaigns to Save the Bees bees from ‘bee killer’ (Neonicotinoid) pesticides became a worldwide phenomenon in the 2010s (see this on some of the history).

Bumble Bees, and hundreds of other types of wild bee, are in decline in many countries.  In some cases they have been reduced from species widespread before agricultural industrialisation to tiny vulnerable populations (such as the Great Yellow Bumblebee, reduced by 80% in the UK).  Three UK Bumble Bee species have become extinct. By 2019 the Large Mason Bee which used to be found in southern England and Wales and the Six-banded Nomad Bee, formerly ‘fairly widespread’, were each confined to single sites.

The success of campaigns in generating public interest led to politicians (including Boris Johnson as London mayor), the media and individuals to promote bee-keeping, especially in urban areas.  This increased bee numbers but of Honey Bees, not of wild bees.  The campaigns to ‘save the bees’ often used images of  Honey Bees which are reared in artificial hives.  Honey Bees were first domesticated 9,000 years ago and are more like livestock than wild animals. They do not need rescuing. In fact like many agricultural animals they compete with wildlife for food.

Above,  for reference, is a Bumble Bee with a Honey Bee

Find a basic UK bee identification chart here. A few truly wild Honey Bees do exist in the UK but are nowadays very rare

‘Saving Chickens’

The US Sierra Club pointed out in 2018 that studies in CaliforniaCanadaIreland and England found that wild bee numbers dropped as farmed bee numbers increased, and wild bees contracted pests and diseases from Honey Bees.

 “Honeybees are not going to go extinct,” said Scott Black, executive director of the US Xerces Society an invertebrate conservation group. “We have more honeybee hives than we’ve ever had and that’s simply because we manage honeybees. Conserving honeybees to save pollinators is like conserving chickens to save the birds.”

In 2018 Greenpeace US drew criticism from a Cambridge bee researcher for featuring only agricultural Honey Bees in its SOS Bees campaign material (no longer online).

In 2019 the Guardian reported:

… growing concern from scientists and experienced beekeepers that the vast numbers of honeybees, combined with a lack of pollinator-friendly spaces, could be jeopardising the health and even survival of some of about 6,000 wild pollinators across the UK.

Kew Gardens’ State of the World’s Plant and Fungi report warned: “Campaigns encouraging people to save bees have resulted in an unsustainable proliferation in urban beekeeping. This approach only saves one species of bee, the honeybee, with no regard for how honeybees interact with other, native species …”

and

Dale Gibson of Bermondsey Street Bees, a commercial beekeeping practice with a focus on sustainability, says they have reduced their hives in London by a third to alleviate the overpopulation crisis. He explains how the dietary requirements of honeybees can make competition for scarce food resource extremely fierce.

“Honeybees are very efficient, almost omnivorous consumers of nectar and pollen; they are voracious,” says Gibson. “There is no off button. They will carry on consuming what’s out there as long as it’s out there. Just to stay alive each beehive will consume 250 kilos of nectar and 50 kilos of pollen. If you have a hive of 70,000 bees, that’s 70,000 times four or five cycles over a single season. You are talking about almost half a million bees that have got to be fed.”

[In contrast even a large a colony of the Buff Tailed Bumble Bee, the commonest species in the UK, will only hold about 400 workers].

The Guardian also noted that:

‘While the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization reports there are more than 90m honeybee hives globally, many rarer native pollinators are in increasingly precarious positions’

So the Honey Bee was the wrong poster bee. Yet like an out of control meme, the Honey Bee continues to be promoted as a proxy for all the wild bees and other insects under real threat from pesticides and destruction of habitat, mostly through industrialisation of farming.

Even now, the UN picks a Honey Bee to represent bees for its World Bee Day , although World Bee Day 2025 information resources created for the Sustainable Development Goals by RELX (formerly science publisher Reed-Elservier),  accidentally uses an image of a wasp colony instead:

Too late, conservation groups were left trying to qualify the story and point out that Honey Bees are not even as important for crops as is often assumed. In 2024 The Wildlife Trusts said  ‘Honeybees are mostly kept in managed hives, and are likely responsible for pollinating between 5-15% of the UK’s insect-pollinated crops. That leaves 85-95% of the UK’s insect-pollinated crops relying on wild pollinators …’..

Tolerating Nature Blindness

The Wrong-Poster-Bee story shows that conservation efforts can be derailed by an inability to distinguish one plant or animal from another, in other words by nature blindness or a lack of nature ability or literacy, or as it used to be called, by a lack of Natural History knowledge.

When the ‘professional’ communicators and educators who relay the ‘messages’ of the nature movement to the whole of society are also unable to tell one creature or plant from another, it undermines campaigns or programmes designed to protect or restore nature.

Mistakes in the UK media regularly provide examples.  Here the EDP, Britain’s largest regional newspapers, provides picture of a Blue Tit to illustrate a story about Bee Eaters.

Not knowing what a Bee-Eater looks like is easily forgiven, as they rarely appear in the UK but the Blue Tit is almost ubiquitous across the country.

With negligible nature ability, people look out of their car windows and make sense of what they see. Understandably, apparently ‘wild’ creatures or plants are likely to be taken as natural.  Many for instance think that Pheasants are wild British birds because they seem to be free-living but Pheasants are not native or wild: they are mass-reared and released livestock.  This misapprehension extends to some producers of ‘educational’ materials and its seems, the BBC, which has awarded it the epithet ‘British’.

Millions of (Ring-Necked) Pheasants are released for shooting each year, with an estimated biomass (weight) equal to twice that of all other breeding birds in Britain.

As the Pheasant is large, obvious and relatively tame, it’s a bird likely to be seen by people driving in the countryside.  Like mass-released Honey Bees, Pheasants are voracious feeders, only not on nectar.  A study from Belgium suggests that wild snakes and lizards have disappeared from areas with large scale Pheasant releases.

David Attenborough’s nature programmes are one of the BBC’s most valuable assets but this doesn’t mean the BBC is nature-literate.  A BBC News voiceover confused Great Crested Grebes with Swans in reporting the results of the biggest UK wildlife photography competition:

Meanwhile, in 2023 the UK Department of Education and The Guardian did not seem to understand the difference between foreign ornamental flowers and native wildflowers.

One reason this matters, as mentioned above, is that many native insects reply on specific native plants as ‘food plants’, while the adult stages may use nectar from many flowers.  Attempts to re-create ‘lost meadows’ (97% of traditional UK hay meadows have been destroyed) or use your garden to help insects will not work if the wrong plants are used.

Proxy Nature

Like most nations, the UK has become progressively ‘greener’ as measured by awareness of environmental ‘issues’ including saving ‘forests’ and ‘nature’, or  willingness to embrace choices such as renewable energy or greener consumer goods.

Yet at the same time the UK has become more nature blind: it is like a society which increasingly celebrates the importance of libraries and literature while simultaneously becoming less able to read.

It’s routinely assumed that because nature is green, and green is good, all that’s green is nature, even chemically sterilised industrial farm landscapes.   Hence the political traction of ‘Green Belt’ and ‘Grey Belt’ discussed in Parts 1 and 2.

‘Nature’, ‘the countryside’ and ‘the outdoors’ have become increasingly synonymous, making it possible to be in favour of them as concepts, and not distinguish between proxies (such as ‘green spaces’) and the real thing.  Launched by then Prime Minister David Cameron, the ‘GREAT’ campaign promoted the ‘great countryside’, and it’s ‘inspiring landscapes’ as one of ten reasons to visit the UK.

The official press release encapsulated the essential ‘greatness’ of Britain’s ‘countryside’ in these words:

‘Countryside: From Constable to Wordsworth, the British countryside has inspired some of the world’s finest artists and poets’. 

True but also indicative of the relative value placed on nature in C21st British culture: important for inspiring formal ‘culture’ as taught in History of Art or Literature courses, but not for itself, or for any direct social connection with nature.

So it’s assumed to be important to know about Constable and Wordsworth but Bluebells or other wildflowers, perhaps not.  Nature-inspired Arts are indeed, their own cultural form but they are only proxies for nature: we can keep the books, poems and paintings more easily than the real nature, just as Attenborough films may outlast their subjects.

The “host” of Ullswater Lake District Daffodils which inspired William Wordsworth’s poem starting “I wandered lonely as a cloud” in 1802, are real Wild Daffodils.  Once common, they are now rare (see ‘Golden Triangle of Wild Daffodils’ in the nature Events in Popular Culture section below).

Today Daffodils are the most commonly planted flowers in Britain but ornamental varieties, not the slighter, delicate wild ones.  Each March hundreds of visitor attractions offer Daffodil Walks, often promoted by reference to Wordsworth but how many visitors realise they are looking at fakes, not the originals?  Even in the Lake District, many roadsides are planted with fake daffs rather than the authentic Wild Daffodils which inspired Wordsworth and his sister.

Here’s Wordsworth’s poem summarised by ChatGPT:

‘The speaker describes a moment of solitude when he comes across a field of golden daffodils dancing by a lake, which brings him joy. The sight of the flowers, compared to stars, becomes a cherished memory that fills him with happiness during his reflective moments, highlighting nature’s uplifting power on the spirit’.

Would we tolerate eradication of the authentic Wordsworth, and its replacement with something which gets the general gist? And if not for the real poem, why for the real plant?

Ask editors from the BBC, The Guardian or the EDP or even web editors at the Department of Education, if they are in favour of banning bee-killing pesticides or creating more wildflower meadows and they’d probably say “yes”, as being in favour of nature in theory, has become a social norm.  Hence all the media coverage, albeit often inaccurate.  But in professional communications culture, getting nature wrong in detail seems less likely to be seen as shameful as a misplaced comma or apostrophe.   This only reflects how the importance of nature ability has dwindled in wider society.

Sunflowers by Banksy?

Thanks to our more embedded social culture of food, architecture, art and sport, editors would not tolerate cakes labelled as bread, a white wine as a Claret, a Tudor house as Georgian, a Van Gogh as a Banksy, or mistaking Wigan Athletic for Manchester City, or US Football labelled as Rugby.  But getting nature wildly wrong is trivial, or perhaps just seen as not being ‘nerdy’.

Conservation and environment groups should take nature-blindness and the de facto tolerance of it seriously, as it speaks volumes about nature’s lack of traction in wider society, including in politics.

Without an intervention to increase basic nature knowledge, they face an uphill task, when every time they want to engage a wider public with a campaign, project or make a case for action, it has to involve trying to explain almost every bird, animal or plant they are talking about, or accepting that audiences nod but really don’t understand.  The net effect of constantly raising concerns about things people do not understand, is of course to create an impression that your concerns are esoteric and marginal.

A Natural History GCSE Won’t Be Enough

The best known current attempt to increase Natural History knowledge through UK formal education is the Natural History GCSE for 16 year olds, developed as a result of a campaign led by Mary Colwell, UK, formerly of the BBC Natural History Unit. (More here).  It has been quite an achievement to steer her proposal through the educational system, not least as many educationalists themselves lack nature knowledge. The earliest that teaching of the new qualification will take place is 2026.

Mark Castle, of the small Field Studies Council which trains people in field skills, has argued for natural history to be available to younger children as well.  The Field Studies Council is calling for a national Skills for Nature Plan.

Any additional teaching of Natural History is to be welcomed as a contribution of overcoming the UK’s deficit in nature ability but despite what many adults might hope, it is far from a silver bullet.

Numerous studies have found that formal school education has a relatively weak effect compared to family influences.  A 2022 Swiss study of nature ability in teachers and primary children reported that ‘contact with living beings’ and ‘support of family members’ were important while ‘their school education was rather insignificant’.  The Oxford studymentioned earlier found that ‘family influences, self-motivation and knowledge of birds, rather than formal education, best predicted students’ overall Natural History Knowledge’.

In 2007 Sarah Pilgrim, David Smith and Jules Pilgrim from Essex University examined  ability to ‘identify local plants and animals, name their uses, and tell stories about them’ in four Lincolnshire villages, four suburban wards of south London, and three maritime towns in East Anglia. They found  ‘respondents with the highest ecoliteracy levels acquired it from parents and relatives, environment-based occupations, and hobbies’.  Those whose knowledge came primarily from TV and schooling were ‘least competent at identifying local plant and animal species’, with book-learning falling in between.

Knowledge of wildlife and in particular plants, is vastly greater in the few societies who still live a pre-industrial lifestyle. For instance ‘by the age of 8’ Zapotec children in Mexico ‘can reliably identify hundreds of wild plants and recall associated culinary and medicinal knowledge’.  We can be fairly sure that they acquired this knowledge from relatives, as would have happened in pre-industrial Britain.

My conclusion is that the adult community, including parents, grandparents and their friends, need to be involved in giving children nature ability, as well as teachers. More than this, ‘children’ should not be the only target in any UK campaign to enhance nature ability.  We have generations of adults who need to be reached, and that requires a multi-channel social marketing approach, in the same way that public health, occupational safety, food and other social and cultural campaigns have worked.

Contact: chris@campaignstrategy.co.uk

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Culture and Nature – 2 – Missing The Garden Opportunity

Section 2  – Missing The Garden Opportunity

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“Where Have All The Insects Gone?” – 2024’s Silent Spring

An incidental demonstration of both the potential of nature ability and its present disconnect from political machinery, occurred in Spring this year, when people in the UK noticed a marked absence of insects, especially bees.

Populations of many insects are notoriously volatile and affected by weather at any timescale but by May 2024 it was clear there were far fewer butterflies and Bumble Bees than usual in our own Norfolk garden.  Then we visited the Knepp rewilding project in Sussex and found much the same thing.  We met a fellow Knepp visitor who turned out to be a botanical surveyor from North Wales.  She told us she’d enjoyed hearing the nearby Nightingales but had “expected more abundance”.  I remember saying vague, and to my regret, slightly dismissive things about availability of blossom and insect broods but as we walked on, I had to admit to myself that she was right.   I too was disappointed that the UK’s most famous re-wilding site seemed short on insects (and Swifts).

On May 10 we walked round this orchard at Knepp and saw just one Bumble Bee, despite all the apple blossom.

In Hampshire on 22 May Melanie Oxley of PeCAN (see section on Nature Events) wrote in the Petersfield Climate Action Network blog:

‘A few days ago I led a small group of children armed with insect nets, into a meadow area in the countryside. It was a very warm spring day. In 45 minutes we had caught just two insects, a seven-spot ladybird and a small white butterfly.  Just one pollinator! There was the nature emergency staring us in the face. The children were disappointed and I was heartbroken’.

“Just one pollinator!  There was the nature emergency staring us in the face”.

Back in Norfolk on 25 May as I assembled a demonstration ‘Bug Hotel’ for the ‘Queen’s Garden’ at the Fairy Fair (26 -7 May) at Bradmoor Woods, it was obvious that there were almost no flying insects about.  In previous years on the same dates, we’d been worried about wild bees moving in before we’d have to dismantle and take it away, at the end of the Fair.  We had no such problem in 2024, though the display of wildflowers in pots had few visiting insects to show visiting families.

Also on 25 May, over in Bantry, County Cork in Ireland, Michele Hallahan posted “alarming absence of insects is starkly noticeable this year.  Birds are starving as a result”.

On June 9 Lyn Lambert tweeted from Blashford Lakes in Hampshire:  “insects were worryingly almost missing”, and on June 14 near Newcastle Upon Tyne, John McCarthy wrote: “My walk this afternoon … Bright and warm, slight breeze. But something was missing! INSECTS. There are no bees and hardly any insects … Rachel Carson #SilentSpring”.

On June 22, day of the Restore Nature Now march, @SophieAmandaH tweeted about an absence of larger Hawk Moths in her light trap.

It was Insect Week organised by the Royal Entomological Society from 23-29th June.  Some people reported lots of insects, many more, very few.  It varied a lot from place to place and across species groups.  From Northern Ireland, meadow-restorer Donna Rainey, @donnarainey4 welcomed an uptick of insects after “a real absence of invertebrates locally for a few weeks”.

On June 30 this post from Natasha Walter in London produced a string of over 400 replies from all over the UK. 

One thing that struck me was the number who had put their faith in wildlife gardening and local rewilding, seen it produce results, and were now in need of hope, reassurance and guidance.   “What to do about it seems unanswerable” said one, and another: “I already have an established wildlife garden, usually buzzing with bees and grasshoppers but nothing this year.  I’ve also rewilded other areas.  What can we do now?!”

The following day, Sussex University scientist and naturalist Dave Goulson posted his thoughts in the shape of a video on Youtube, Where have all the insects gone? (58k views).

“Social media in the last few days has been going absolutely berserk aboutinsects having disappeared about the lack of bees in particular in people’s gardens a few a few people disagreeing saying they’ve got plenty but most people saying they’re they’re really worried because they’re they’re not seeing any bees, [and] some say they used to a week or two ago they had bees and they all disappeared … and it seems to be widespread panic that we’re suffering from a very sharp kind of insect apocalypse, so I thought you might be interested in in my take …”

Goulson delivered a “don’t panic” message about the near-term absence of insects related to a “mild really wet winter followed by a really cold and wet spring” affecting both insects and the plants they rely on, followed up with “it’s worse than you think and we should be panicking” about the long-term trends (he guessed 90-95% of insects had been lost over 100 years) and drivers of decline like pesticides and climate change.

The difficulty with this, which long bedevilled climate change communications, is that humans are hardwired to respond to short-term threats, so there is no better time to respond to a gradual long-term change than when it’s acutely manifest in the short- term.   Nature groups need to work out how to do this, or else the shifting-baseline effect will mean the opportune moments to raise the alarm are never seized.

As with climate attribution, where thanks to the work of Friedi Otto and colleagues we now have near real-term attribution of climate change to real weather events, the ‘biodiversity’ community needs to be able to relate things people notice and are concerned about, to probable causes, while the relevant events are ongoing and the critical context (see CAMPCAT) validates the message.

As it was, the highly motivated engagement with the UK’s ‘Silent Spring’, which verged on the cusp of despair, drew a slow and strangely tepid response from established conservation organisations.

I am pretty sure because they’d also noticed but didn’t know what to say.  The UK’s mini ‘Silent Spring’ preceded and followed the June 22 Restore Nature Now march and yet it didn’t seem to feature at that event, although I may have missed it.

Insect week and the ‘missing insects’ were discussed on BBC Radio’s Today Programme on 24 June, and on July 19, Tony Juniper, Chairman of Natural England, wrote a personal Opinion piece in The Guardian Where are all the butterflies this summer? Their absence is telling us something important which reiterated Goulson’s emphasis on the longer term drivers.

Scientists and nature groups have some long-running structured surveys which try to measure the ups and downs of insects in a standardised way, to avoid relying on ‘anecdotal’ reports from Twitter or elsewhere.

In an August article also called Where Have All The Insects Gone?, Manuela Saragosa explored the world of insect-counting for the Financial Times.

She mentioned Britain’s Hoverfly Recording Scheme (Hoverflies are important and endangered pollinators and the UK Hoverflies Facebook Group has nearly 7,000 members) run since at least 1991, and the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme, which has been going since 1976 (and has a sister more popular app-based Big Garden Butterfly Count 18 July – 10 August,  with 135,000 counts in 2023), along with the Rothamsted Insect Survey which as been using light and vacuum traps since 1964.

It’s data from such surveys which proves that the UK’s insects have massively declined.   But like most science, such surveys are run and analysed slowly and carefully.  On 29 July Butterfly Conservation, organisers of the Big Garden ‘Count did give a mid-survey update:

‘… very low numbers of butterflies have been spotted so far in their annual Big Butterfly Count. On average participants are seeing just over half the number of butterflies they were spotting this time last year.  The unusually wet and windy spring, coupled with the colder than usual temperatures so far this summer could be contributing to the lack of butterflies. While there is a chance of a later emergence of the insects if there is a prolonged sunny spell, numbers are currently the lowest recorded in the 14-year history of Butterfly Conservation’s Big Butterfly Count’.

[In October I was at a nature reserve with a summer population of Nightjars, birds which feed on night-flying insects.  I was told that scientists studying the birds had found they were badly underweight due to lack of food during the late May – early August breeding season and had probably not reared few if any any young.]

Opportunity Missed

But by August and September many nature oriented Twitter users were reporting slightly larger numbers of bees and butterflies.  It was, now, in communications parlance, a ‘falling’ rather than a ‘rising’ issue.  Engaging a potentially huge audience catalysed by those with the natural history ability, the time, the motivation and the stories – about the nature gardens and places they had lovingly created – was an opportunity missed.

2024’s Big Garden Butterfly Count results were published on 18 September.  They were confirmed as the lowest ever in the Count’s 14 year history.  Butterfly Conservation called it a Butterfly Emergency and Tony Juniper said it was a “warning” of what lay ahead but the findings were no longer so salient.  It was autumn.   The surge of concern driven by the unexpected stillness and silence of flower-filled gardens and hedgerows at the crest of spring and the height of summer was long gone.

People who are active custodians of nature in their gardens on a daily basis, are a growing cultural phenomenon.  They use social media on a short communication cycle.  There will be more opportunities for that to reach out to MPs, government, Councillors and Councils but not at the pace of formalised science, citizen-science or otherwise.

To embed this locally-rooted contemporary nature awareness in political consciousness, will require a more agile way to engage politicians while the public is actively engaged by real events.  In strategy jargon it needs a tighter OODAloop. While the 2024 Silent Spring surge existed, it had nothing to connect it to politics, not even on July 4, General Election Day.

My Twitter ‘nature sentries’ are not typical of the general population: many of them have devoted large amounts of time, effort and money to maximising the suitability of their homes and gardens to support wildlife.  Used to sharing examples of bees and other insects visiting their gardens, and in some cases able to identify a lot of insects and plants including wildflowers,  they are very ‘tuned in’ to nature and likely to notice unusual absences or changes.   But they are just the tip of a gardening culture which is increasingly pro-nature.  They are potential ‘mavens’ and ‘connectors’ who could be used to engage friends, relatives and neighbours – if they engaged at the opportune moment.

Nature’s Changing Place In Gardening Culture

“Norwich is said by fame to be a City in a Wood, or a Wood in a City’ some calls it a Grove in a City, or a City in a Grove; and others say, it is a Garden in a City, or a City in a Garden.” 

 The Records of Norwich 1736   [thanks to Patrick Barkham for tracking down this quote when I couldn’t find it]

‘A nature-literate Britain must become a widely shared political objective. To achieve such political backing, nature ability and quality must become aspirational, for example by being attached to popular past-times like gardening, and being seen as a desirable feature in gardens and homes’.

Why Our Children Are Not Being Connected With Nature, 2014

Gardening is a major part of UK culture because of what we do, not because there are a lot of gardening books, university degrees in it, or gardening museums.  We spend a lot of time and money on, and in our 16 million gardens.  More of us are now including nature in our plans.

According to the UK’s HTA (Horticultural Trades Association), UK households collectively spent around £8 billion on retail garden products in 2023, much of it from about 1400 garden centres and retail nurseries. 91%  believe gardens and green spaces benefit the environment and wildlife and 51% say they use their garden to feed, watch or encourage wildlife.

78% of British adults (about 43m people) have access to a private garden.  62%  use them to grow plants, trees and flowers. 34%  grow some herbs, fruit and vegetables. 84% of British adults believe gardens and green spaces benefit their state of mind, and 79%  their physical health.

The average UK garden is 16m x 16m or 256m2, excluding window boxes and balconies, and the combined area of the UK’s domestic gardens is roughly the same as Somerset – with obvious potential to both increase living space for native flora and fauna, and increase nature ability, such as recognizing and understanding wild plants.

For instance the Fairyland Trust has been running ‘Fairy Gardens’ Workshops (children take away coir pots with plug plant of native wildflowers to plant at home) and campaigns about planting wildflowers in gardens, since the early 2000s.

Wildflower plug plants in ‘Fairy Gardens’ at a Fairy Fair, and wildflowers established from a ‘Fairy Garden’ planted into the ground in a garden (Greater Stitchwort, Wild Strawberry and Red Campion).

The Trust worked out that if all 16m gardens grew a square metre of Dandelions at the density found in one garden in Norfolk, that could support 1.7m extra colonies of Bumble Bees. While if all gardens included a four square metre patch of wildflowers, it would add an area equivalent to half of all the remaining natural flower rich meadows in the country.

Birds are already part of garden culture in a way that wildflowers are not just yet.  The BTO (British Trust for Ornithology) says we spend £2-300m on wild bird seed every year.  A 2012 study  found a majority of households feed birds (64% across rural and urban areas in England, and 53% within five British study cities, fed garden birds. That is about 18m households feeding birds in their garden, considerably more people than even the most optimistic estimate of the membership of environment groups.  Another investigation found that over 40 years, such feeding has affected the fortunes of national bird populations, with those using garden feeders going up, compared to those that don’t.

Horticulture Magazine’s website has reported that there ‘has been a conscious move towards organic and eco-friendly products, with 46% of gardeners using organic fertilisers instead of those filled with chemicals’, and  87% wanted to bring more wildlife to their gardens by feeding them or providing shelter.  It also found 37% thought wildlife was the best part about owning a garden, ‘rating it ahead of growing their own plants or vegetables’.  This is a real change from attitudes prevalent in the 1990s when research for early Plantlife campaigns found that even many people who were pro-nature baulked at the idea of wild-flowers in gardens, as ‘wild’ implied a loss of control.

The Wyevale report found that 46% of gardeners were consciously selecting organic fertilisers ‘rather than those which contain potentially harmful chemicals’.  Slug pellets, previously their top selling slug product ‘were not even in the top 3, with an organic alternative now clinching the top spot’.

In 2016 1 in 5 reported they were changing their gardens by reducing the size of lawns in favour of other features.  These trends suggest that it might not be that difficult to encourage people to make further changes to help nature, especially discrete features each with their own logic, such as:

  • More ponds, small marshes & wet ditches for frogs, and swales to help water soakaway into the ground rather than overloading drains, and rain gardens
  • Wet mud for Swallows and House Martins to make their nests with
  • Swift towers and boxes in gardens and on homes
  • Green roofs with low nutrient substrates to allow high diversity of wild plants
  • Green Walls and rain gardens
  • Bramble and nettle patches for butterflies and other insects
  • Hedgehog holes through fences to create roaming on ‘Hedgehog Highways’
  • Low nutrient unfertilised and chemical free flower beds and mixed length lawns for wildflower and insect diversity
  • Leaving areas of fallen leaves and deadstems in place for spiders, overwintering insects and foraging birds and animals

There’s no shortage of examples of nature-improved gardens. Expertise goes back to Miriam Rothschild (whose wildflower garden became a SSSI), and study to Jennifer Owen’s work on a single garden from 1971 – 2001, and almost every environmental NGO has given ‘wildlife gardening’ advice but it’s generally remained socially invisible, a matter of personal choice, carried out in private.

Open Garden Days and community-level networks based around particular actions can make a difference to that but scaling up and sustaining such initiatives requires resources and continuity which have often been lacking.

To take just one of many hundreds of such projects, in 2013 the Warwickshire Wildlife Trust launched a Help For Hedgehogs campaign and in 2015 sought funding for a dedicated Hedgehog Officer, in post for a year, to set up a Hedgehog Improvement Area (HIA) around Elmdon Park in Solihull, involving gardens and open spaces.  The HIA was announced in 2016 and the project engaged 26,000 adults and 12,500 school children but was ended in 2020

 A Hedgehog Highway sign from Hedgehog Street run by the PTES and BHPS

To give such activities sustained social visibility requires some sort of permanent organisational scaffolding, which not only enables it with funding but signals that it has public backing and political legitimacy.  In the 1950s-1970s farmers got grants to destroy nature (eg hedges, wet meadows), while being invited to consider leaving unwanted “corners’ for it.  Later, agri-environment schemes were set up to incentivise nature-friendly farming, but only for farmers and rural landowners.  It’s time this recognition extended to gardeners and urban land.

 Crediting The Value Of Home And Garden Nature

A Lapwing nesting on a green roof in Switzerland

In a 2022 post I  suggested giving local Council Tax payers a rebate in proportion to the nature features they supported by their homes and gardens, in the same way that farmers are now paid for ‘environmental public goods’ on agricultural land:

Reward Everyone Who Helps Nature …  democratize the use of public money for nature (public goods) so it is not restricted by ‘eligibility rules’ based on agricultural holdings … but on outcomes. While the majority of finance would still flow to farmers as so much land in the UK is farmed, there in no natural justice in paying a farmer if s/he produces two Song Thrushes where there was one before, and not a householder with a garden, or other landowner. One way to deliver this would be through Council Tax rebates for nature.

In 2023 Ross Cameron from Sheffield University made a similar call to use council tax or water bill discounts to incentivise greener gardens.

Bumble Bee on an English Green Roof – from www.livingroofs.org

Such payments could also incentivize property owners in developed areas (and not just gardens) to reduce rain run off into overburdened sewers, by diverting it into domestic wetlands and allowing it to recharge groundwater and reduce flood risk.

Running such a scheme would require identification of qualifying features, as has already been done on a coarse scale for agri-environment schemes and is required by the biodiversity net gain planning requirements for new built developments (see 13 CIEEM principles).

These features could and should be related to characteristic local nature, and so could give each home and garden a ‘Nature Score’ and an ‘Ecological Vernacular’ rating, creating new social selling points and become something to be proud of, in the same way that an historic Blue Plaque or Listed Feature, or inclusion of a garden in the Register of Historic Gardens is seen to enhance the value of a property.   They would need to be detailed, recognizing the fine scale of most gardens and the importance of ‘ecological details’, such as food plants for insects (see some moth foodplantsand a Jersey example), birds and animals, or nesting places such as Swift Bricks.

In the past two years Swift Brick advocate Hannah Burn-Taylor has made waves with her one woman Feather Speechcampaign, seeking to convince politicians to mandate Swift Bricks in new homes. It is an extraordinarily modest demand, and so far it’s not succeeded. It shows how little traction nature has in Westminster.

Swift Brick campaigners 20 September 2024

Concern for Swifts was set up to campaign on exactly the same problem of Swifts losing their nest sites, back in 1995, when Burn-Taylor was nine. 15 years before, in his seminal 1980 book The Common Ground, Richard Mabey wrote of Swifts, ‘how good it would be if we also found room for them in our modern buildings, as they do in Amsterdam, where re-roofing is illegal unless access for swifts is retained’.   The UK is still a long way behind.

 

Garden Centres

                                                                                                                                 

Garden Centres and Supermarkets play a huge role in shaping the choice-architecture of UK gardening: they are the default go-to gardening hubs selling everything from seeds and live plants to fish, machinery, plastic grass and garden ‘care’ products, meaning mainly herbicides, fungicides, insecticides and artificial fertilisers.  They are the shop front of a horticultural industry whose prevailing ethos has long been not nature but artifice, with plants as ornaments.

Garden centre plants

Camouflaged by their benign trappings of cafeterias and floral hanging baskets, conventional Garden Centres are the arms suppliers for a domestic war on nature.  Many of the flowers they sell are so artificial that they are useless for nature because they contain no nectar or pollen, or it’s inaccessible, and they are not food plants for native wildlife.

In 2017 Dave Gouslon from Sussex University found some garden centre plants labelled ‘bee-friendly’ actually contained systemic insecticides (ie insecticides inside the plant).  Most Garden Centres also sell ‘lawn improver’.  These can contain a mix of herbicide to kill truly bee friendly flowers like Self-heal or Dandelions, moss killer, and to make grass look bright green, artificial fertiliser which may also be toxic to insects.

Well into the 2000s this ‘normal’ was so ingrained that it was common to see ‘weedkiller’ such as Glyphosate (aka Roundup) advertised in magazines of conservation organisations.  UK readers will remember Therese Coffey, who served as Secretary of State for the Environment in the Conservative administration of Rishi Sunak, and is said to be a keen gardener, and who made a point of endorsing Glyphosate.

Therese Coffey talking to the NFU conference in 2023 – from The Independent

As the Wyevale Garden Centres report highlighted above hints at, there is change at the margins. Whereas in the early 2000s wildflower seeds and wildflower plug plants (small rooted plants that can be easily planted and give much better results than using seed) were only available from a couple of specialists, I found ten online in as many minutes, including established major suppliers, and many more companies sell seed.  There are also dozens of companies offering ecological landscaping and habitat creation services.

Coffey and the conventional garden centres represent the market ‘laggards’.  The ‘wildflower’ customers, along with installers of green roofs and other ‘new green features’, are market innovators followed by the early adopters.  This is the cultural change dynamic tracked for any innovation by CDSM, Cultural Dynamics Strategy and marketing, in their Values Modes model.  The Inner Directed Pioneers experiment and innovate, and if it looks socially successful, they are emulated by the esteem seeking Prospectors.  Once a behaviour spreads enough to be seen as ‘normal’, it’s adopted by the change resistant security-driven Settlers, by ‘norming’, ie changing to stay in line with a new normal. (Social change dynamic #13book here).

This process can be speeded up if large and familiar actors signal that they are adopting the new ways – ripe territory for campaigns seeking a social tipping point.  If the environmental NGOs were now to pressure Garden Centre chains not just to stock and promote nature friendly products like wildflower plug plants grown without pesticides but also stop selling garden chemicals, in line with demands of campaigns such as the Pesticides Collaboration (environment groups and unions) to ban pesticides in urban public places it could catalyse rapid behaviour change.

Of course there would initially be an internal furore in the horticultural industry with many arguing against change, and the most effective way to quickly convince them of the need to change would be the prospect of competition.  Nature groups could set up their own garden centres, and urge their members to use them – groups like RSPB and National Trust have plenty of properties where this could be done, with or without acquiring additional adjacent land, and plenty of corporates and possibly Councils would be interested as potential partners.

All sections

1 – Introduction And Nature Ability

2 – Missing The Garden Opportunity

3 – Signalling and Marking Moments

4 – Nature Events in Popular Culture

5 – Why Conservation Should Embrace Natural History

6 – Organising Strategy and Ways And Means

7 – Afterword: Aren’t We Doing This Already?

Contact: chris@campaignstrategy.co.uk

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Culture and Nature – 3 – Signalling Nature And Marking Moments

Section 3 – Signalling Nature And Marking Moments

download as pdf

 Just Add Signs

I spent a year in this building, part of UCL in London’s Gower Street, without reading this, high above the pavement but a plaque to Darwin first went up on this site in 1906.  UK nature is rarely as well marked. 

Perhaps the lowest cost, simplest and quickest way to start to elevate the perception of nature is to improve the visibility of what’s already there.  Not just nature itself such as features, plants and creatures but human activities and artifacts which speak of its existence and importance. On a map for example.

Buxton Heath Nature Reserve (Norfolk Wildlife Trust) marked by the blue bird.

In 1997, the blue bird symbol for nature reserves was added to the UK OS Ordnance Survey Leisure Map series.  This small change made nature more visible, and nature conservation more normal and to-be-expected.  Of course it could have also prompted more people to consider or look out for nature reserves while out on a walk.

A visit to Buxton Heath

The UK has far more detailed maps showing signs of nature conservation activity,  at the website MAGIC – www.magic.gov.uk (aka Nature On the Map).  While this is not so user-friendly and is mainly used by professionals and enthusiasts of map-related sports such as geocaching, it is public.

 Buxton Heath area showing the SSSI (statutory Site of Special Scientific Interest), heathland habitat (pink) and Lowland Fen habitat (brown) as well as agri-environment scheme paying public money to landowners/ managers (cross hatching).

Dozens of layers can be selcted on ‘MAGIC’. The pale green dots are SSSIs, the olive ones are National Nature Reserves, the dark green ones are designated Local Nature Reserves

In 2008 Natural England (NE), the government nature agency for England, had the bright idea of using the MAGIC mapping system to show the public where taxpayers money was going to protect or restore nature, through ‘agri-environment’ schemes.  Despite hundreds of millions of pounds going to such schemes (at that time mainly EU funds, since Brexit purely UK), they were, like the nature they could not identify, effectively invisible to the electorate and politicians.

NE’s idea was that people who used ‘the internet’ when visiting the countryside, would be able to look at their phone and see not just their route on a public footpath, road or track but information about nature, including the specific areas where farmers and others were doing good things. I was contracted to write ‘plain English’ explanations of the scheme categories and organise some market testing but before it got much further, government financial austerity ended the project.

The detail on public financial support to farmers originally shown on this system was removed following objections by landowners, part of the national public interest – private interest battle recently chronicled by campaigner Guy Shrubsole in The Lie Of The Land.

Today Ordnance Survey maps and other apps like GoJauntly now show you online maps and suggest walks but not much about nature and I think it the basic NE idea remains a good one. Only it also seemed to me that the most effective way to signpost nature areas would probably be an app plus waymarks added to the physical signposts that (should) already mark every footpath in the country.

A permanent signpost marking a long distance footpath in Wales – from the Ramblers Association.  (In England and Wales most land is private and the only parts the public can rely for legal rights of access are ‘Public Footpaths’).

A condition of receiving public funding for some agri-environment schemes is ‘permissive’ (non-legal) public access.  In 2024 Farmers Weekly reported that ‘new payments for public access to farmland, which have not been available since 2015, are being introduced. Open access will attract a payment of £92/ha, while the creation of permissive footpaths will pay £77 per 100m and bridleways £158 per 100m’ (all annual payments for five years).

An old temporary sign denoting temporary public access on farmland

The temporary nature of such schemes has often been reflected in the temporary nature of the signs which mark them but it also sends a signal about the ephemeral nature of political commitment behind the scheme.  People are very sensitive to reading unintended messages from appearances.

Left: UK bus stop, right, Netherlands

A friend who works on improving bus services in National Parks told me that transport planners know that if the public see purpose-made enamelled metal signs giving timetables for buses or trains, they have far more confidence in relying on the service in place of a car, than if they see a plastic and paper temporary sign attached to street furniture.

Sign on metal, set in stone marking designation of the Corkscrew Swamp Sanctuary in the US Florida Everglades, intended to be a permanent commitment

A brown ‘visitor attraction’ road sign.  Most nature reserves lack such signage.

A Fairyland Trust nature training visit to ‘Roadside Nature Reserves’, two of 111 RNRs, in Norfolk. Tiny relic fragments of roadside verges which somehow escaped agricultural herbicide spraying and over-fertilisation, and are now actively managed for nature.  Despite some of the participants living nearby they were previously unaware of the existence of these RNRs. Just showing people how small and now rare these flower-rich verges are, whereas all verges once looked like these, has a powerful effect (but it depends on first getting them to study ‘normal’ verges)

 Part of Britain’s inadvertently hidden nature heritage – hundreds of County Wildlife Sites and RNRs and SSSIs, on an obscure County Council map, produced by a resource-starved section of the Council.  Point source map of the Norfolk RNRs here.  Neighbouring Suffolk has a better system here.

Detail from the map of the two tiny Norfolk RNRs visited marked in purple nos. 64 and 104

Nature NGOs could work with the government to get much enhanced and more permanent signage for nature, including SSSIs touched by public access.

Signing Ecosystem Function

From Washington State in the US – a watershed forest creek

Here a system in Pennsylvania in the US, allows property owners to signal their support for and implementation of watershed conservation measures (details).

Many other countries are way ahead of the UK in making nature visible for its ‘Natural Capital’ ecosystem functions, simply by signing them.

Marking Nature Moments in Popular Culture

It’s a well known phenomenon that if you ask someone when they first noticed something, or changed their minds, they often will cite a change they noticed: a moment for instance when “I was walking down the street and I saw …”, or “it was only when I visited X that I realised…”.   This is of course much the same process the ‘prediction error’ learning underpinning Natural History, as opposed to formal hypothesis-testing science (see Section 5).

The 2024 ‘missing bumble bees and butterflies’ Silent Spring was one such ‘moment’ in which something unexpected was noticed, only not in a good way.

More positive ready-made nature-moments that people consciously wait for include the first Cuckoo, Swift or Swallow of Spring, or the flowering of Bluebells.  There are now hundreds of woods promoted as places to go and see the Bluebells but for some reason there is no National Bluebell Week (or possibly fortnight).  There ought to be one.

Where I live in Wells next the Sea, pretty much the whole town notices and talks about it, when the first Pink Footed Geese arrive from the north, usually in September.  These mark the seasons and punctuate our world in a reassuring way – that the clock of authentic nature still functions.  As Richard Mabey wrote:

‘we cannot just casually replace one thing by another.  A plantation will not ‘do’ for an ancient wood.  A dandelion cannot stand in for a primrose.  When the swifts return it is crucial that they are swifts, not starling, and that they are returning’

and ended his book The Common Ground with lines from Ted Hughes poem ‘Swifts’:

‘They’ve made it again,

Which means the globe’s still working, the Creation’s

Still waking refreshed, our summer’s

Still all to come

            And here they are, here they are again’

The Woodland Trust runs a ‘Nature’s Calendar’ project, guiding and asking people to help record on which dates wild plants come into leaf or produce flowers and fruit.

It’s certain that nature played a central role in making time from way before we had ‘dates’ in the sense of the Gregorian calendar we use today. Ancient Neolithic and later stick-calendars carved into bone, stone, ivory or wood, marked astronomical and ecological events such the timing of breeding wild birds, flowering and fruiting of plants and the migration of fish and whales, and are thought by some to be the origin of ‘magic wands’.

The Fairyland Trust took this as inspiration to invent a signs-of-time ‘Elf Stick’ Workshop:

Elf Stick ‘magical stick of time’ or yearly nature-clock  A black feather marks the arrival time of Swifts (in Norfolk). Contemporary wild plant and animal events on the yearly nature-clock are marked by leaves, flowers or symbols. The silver circlets are full moons, and the gold circlets the solar equinoxes.

Historically the the solar and lunar events were used to time Imbolc (also the Chinese New Year and the Christian Candelmas), and Beltane, Lammas and Halloween, which are ‘cross quarter’ nature based festivals.  These have innumerable folk traditions associated with them, such as how to manage hay meadows (shut out grazing animals at Imbolc/ Candelmas, let the hay grow, and then harvest it and let the animals back in after Lammas Day (in August)).  May is associated with Beltane celebrations of fertility, such as Maypole Dancing, which the Puritans tried to ban, and of course Swifts.

Awareness raising moments can kick start the process of change-making.  The basic audience campaign sequence I use is awareness> alignment> engagement> action (explainer).

In the case of nature it often starts with experiencing a primal sense of awe or wonder.  It might be in the mind of a small child discovering a world of insects on back yard flowers, or during a holiday snorkel across a coral reef, or on a first visit to an ancient forest, or to a Bluebell Wood in May but it’s frequently enhanced by having someone with you to point out “what we’re looking at” or in the case of a Nightingale, “what we are hearing”.  Such moments are often followed by an emotional conviction such as “this is wonderful it must be kept” or in the case of threat or loss, “this is terrible, it must be stopped”.

The BBC’s Lost Nature-Culture Moment 

The BBC prepares to live-broadcast Nightingales, 1924. In the 2010s the BBC said that technical challenges made repeating Outside Broadcasts of Nightingales too difficult. Photo from Science Museum

Mass broadcast media made it possible for millions of people to experience such moments together, from their homes.  The first ever live Outside Broadcast was made on BBC radio, from 10.45 – 11pm on May 19 1924.  It was also the first ever live broadcast of a wild bird.

This famous broadcast came about because musician Beatrice Harrison realised in 1923 that when she played the cello in her garden, she was being accompanied by a Nightingale singing in the adjacent woods.

Harrison told Lord Reith who ran the BBC, and next year the resulting historic live broadcast was listened to by a million people, some as far afield as Italy, Paris, Barcelona and Hungary.  The BBC interrupted a broadcast by the Savoy ‘Orpheans’ dance band to do so.  It was so popular that over 50,000 people wrote letters to Harrison, and in subsequent years, thousands turned up at the Harrison’s house to hear the Nightingales,  where the family fed them beer and tea.

The BBC continued the tradition each year, interrupting live radio concerts of dance music, until 1942 in World War 2.   A popular cultural nature event, if ever there was one, now lost.

By 2000, Nightingale numbers in the UK had plummeted 90% so when one sang on a heath near our house in Norfolk, I walked up the road up to listen, and wanting to share the experience with someone else, I called journalist Mike McCarthy and held up my phone to the bird.  Mike picked up just as he was leaving an Indian resturant on the Chiswick High Road in London.   He later wrote about the moment in The Independent.:

“Live. Real. Not a recording. Singing now. The five pure slow deep notes, then the characteristic jug-jug-jug, then the machine-gun rattle, all delivered fresh and clear on the night air.  For a moment, as the alcohol fumes swirled around my brain, I thought I was hallucinating; but by no means. The bird was singing in a copse … at Salthouse on the north Norfolk coast 140 miles away”. – Mike McCarthy, 2014

In 2014 when there were even fewer Nightingales to be heard,  I started a 38Degrees petition to get the BBC to restart the Reith Nightingale broadcasts, (more at Nightingale Nights).

3,000 people signed the Nightingale petition. I did my own amateur live broadcasts using internet sharing technology and a mobile phone. Andre Farrar from the RSPB and friends attempted to do a streaming broadcast from Kent and sound technician Richard Fair did one from Florndon near Norwich.

In the end, the BBC did broadcast a snatch of live song on a Springwatch programme and aired a string of programmes about musicians and singers performing with Nightingales but it never reinstated the annual live broadcast, citing technical challenges.  According to a friend in PR, the real reason was that they feared it would make them look old-fashioned to critics in government.

I still think it’s an idea which could help efforts to conserve these incredible birds.  Few people are unmoved by hearing the live song of a Nightingale, especially one singing alone on a quiet night.  In the UK where their dwindling numbers are concentrated in the South East, devotees can travel over a hundred miles to stand with others and hear one.  But it’s a nature experience that should be part of everyone’s culture, and a live broadcast could enable the whole nation to join in.

‘Spectaculars’

The RSPB, and the BBC’s Springwatch, Autumnwatch and Winterwatch, and others, have promoted numerous ‘bird spectacles’, such as Starling ‘murmurations’ around roosts.

‘Spectacles’ are great for nature engagement as they are discrete defined moments which are socially ‘portable’, shareable, referrable, recommendable: all qualities which commend themselves to the esteem-seeking Prospectors who are the major psychological group least served by the open-ended, multi-layered, often intellectualised environmental offers shaped by the Pioneers who dominate the hierarchies of cause organisations.

Put it another way, without the pyschographic jargon: spectacles are great as aspirational, mainstream people can enjoy them with confidence, without being made to feel looked down upon by smug ‘experts’.

A spectacle moment which now needs little promotion is watching Starlings around their roost above the sea on the piers at Brighton beach.  It has become a social reference point.  The Brighton Argus reported that the day after it featured in a 2023 Winterwatch broadcast, 5,000 people turned up to see the Starling murmuration.

Photo by Simon Dack, Brighton Argus – the dots in the sea are swimmers watching the Starlings (in 5.C water in February).  The Starlings roost under the Palace Pier and the ruined West Pier.

Watching the Starlings from Brighton Beach.  Photo Redmarkred on Reddit 

This commercial is one of the best videos of the Brighton murmuration.  Google rerturns 18,400 results for ‘starling murmuration video’.  In Brighton ‘catching the murmuration’ has become a social reference point.

Folk/pop singer Ella Clayton named her first LP ‘Murmurations’ after her wistful love song of the same name, including the line “and did you see the starlings murmurations by the pier as the sun set in?”  Youtube Video

Less accessible than Brighton beach Starlings but treated as a bucket-list nature must-see by birdwatchers, are the clouds of Knot, wintering shorebirds who each year come to the Wash on England’s East Coast. They come from Arctic breeding grounds as far away as Canada.

 BBC report incl video

The RSPB posts advice on seeing the ‘spectacular’ when very high tides force over 100,000 of the birds off their regular mudflats and into tight crowds on the RSPB Snettisham reserve.

Other bird ‘spectacular’s include gatherings of Red Kites which are fed at Llanddeusant in the Brecon Beacons and Gigrin Farm in Mid-Wales, and winter gatherings of wild geese and swans at many of the reserves run by the Wetlands and Wildfowl Trust, including Welney and Slimbridge.

The Night

A non-bird moment which can deeply affect us is the first time we get a good look at the stars.  Many people are fascinated by what goes on above their heads (and especially their homes) but which they don’t usually notice.

This was key to the the popularity of long running BBC tv programme The Sky At Night, started in 1957.  The original format was fronted by eccentric astronomer Patrick Moore until 2012, and showed viewers, originally in live broadcasts, the stars that were visible over their heads at the time of broadcast.

A ‘Sky At Night’ episode on BBC1 on 4 September 2013, featuring amateur astronomers in their back gardens, was watched by nearly 1.5 million.  Fearing modernizers at the BBC was about to axe the programme as ‘slow tv’ in the age of online, a petition to save it was signed 40,000. The BBC transferred it to the less watched BBC4, where it’s become a space issues magazine programme and lost the immediacy and home-sky connection of the original format.  [See current BBC astronomy content including a spin off online monthly ‘Sky at Night’ magazine on star gazing].

Of course in most places people in the UK live, light pollution makes it hard to see the real night sky.

With abundant evidence that light pollution is harming human health as well multiple elements of nature, from birds and trees to insects, there is great scope for nature groups to actively collaborate with the ‘Dark Skies’ movement.

CPRE light pollution map for England

Recently discoveredhow lights create an ecological trap for insects, who try to keep their back to a bright light at night (such as the moon), and die by exhuasting themselves flying around artificial lights, or get eaten by predators. Also featured on Springwatch.

Norfolk-based nature guide David Atthowe of Reveal Nature uses a uv torch to make nature visible to people at night – from lichens and fish to fungi and moths.  His ‘safaris’ are consumable moments of discovery.  Above – at Ty Canol National Park during the 2024 Welsh national “Dark Skies Week”.

Cutting down light pollution is an easy to understand way to help nature, just by changing lighting.  Householders can do it through the home or garden lighting they chose, and street lighting is something that Councils can control and Councillors can decide.  As can businesses with exterior lighting.  So it’s easily available to NGOs for local, regional or national campaigns (as has been done much more in Europe, eg France, and in North America, than in the UK).

The introduction of LED street lighting has accidentally made the problem worse because most Councils have chosen ultra bright cold white lights which do the most harm.

Warm lights (with a light temperature rating below 2700K) do the least damage.  A case of warm lights good – cold lights bad. (All LEDs use far less energy than old tech bulbs).

Image adapted from https://blog.nitecorestore.com/color-temperatures-in-flashlights.html and Friends of the Lake District Good Lighting Guide

From the Cumbria /Lake District lighting guide.

Most bird migration takes place at night, with the birds feeding by day. In the United States, awareness of the harm done by lighting has also been driven by the huge numbers of migrant birds killed as they crash into windows of tall buildings, lured by lights. Campaigns have led some cities to organise switch-offs to save them, for example in Texas.  The organisation FLAP in Ontario, Canada campaigns to stop some of the one billion birds being killed by flying into lighted windows and reflective surfaces in North America, every year.

 This extraordinary artwork by Patricia Homonlyo is called ‘When worlds collide’. She explains: “The Layout honouring birds collected in [Toronto in] 2022 when FLAP recovered approximately 4,000 birds. This annual event serves to educate the public while providing closure for the volunteers”.

National Migration Moments

If you live right on the UK South Coast, a few times a year you may see clouds of migrant butterflies coming in from the sea having flown from Europe. If you live on the East Coast, you may notice swarms of Ladybirds on coastal vegetation as they do the same in summer, or see Blackbirds and other thrushes, even owls, coming ashore in the late autumn.  The birds then spread across the country.  These mass movements of birds usually only last a day or two.

In late autumn keen birdwatchers will go out into their gardens at night when they know migrant thrushes are passing overhead (they fly low) and listen out for the high pitched ‘seep’ call of Redwings from Scandinavia.  But that’s an unusual activity.  A few even more dedicated UK bird enthusiasts are part of a ‘NocMig’ Nocturnal Migration network, and set up microphones to capture and identify the calls of birds flying over at night ( examples).  In reality very few people are aware of the dramatic waves of migrating birds passing over millions of homes.     [The day after I wrote this the RSPB made listening for Redwings one of it’s six top Things To See in Nature for October but knowing when the birds would be flooding over, would help enormously].

One way to change this would be to use radar, which can detect flying birds and even tell how large they are.   Weather and air traffic radar already detects bird migration but in the UK the data is not made available, and is ‘scrubbed’ from the images used to show rain or aircraft.

In the US, Colorado State University and the Cornell Lab of Ornithology currently produce bird migration forecasts, similar to the weather forecast, using radar networks. They show predicted nocturnal migration 3 hours after local sunset and are updated every 6 hours.  This BirdCast system results from a 20 year collaboration between universities and government agencies.

This BirdCast ‘primer’ shows radar video of waves of birds on their autumn migration in October 2017, as they come in from Canada and head south. Some radar returns show them heading across the sea to the Caribbean, into Mexico towards Central America.

The real time BirdCast map (above) from 26 September 2024 shows 181.7 million birds in flight at 7am Eastern Time.

It would be possible to do the same in the UK, if the right organisations could collaborate. Some Dutch bird scientists do have access to radar – in the video image below, Hans van Gasteren @hvangasteren on twitter, showed a large surge of birds setting off for the UK from the Dutch coast in autumn 2022 (tech from RobinRadar).

Watch the video here – the red and yellow tracks indicate birds of different sizes.  

Conservationists speak of the “extinction of experience” as nature is eroded and we live lives more insulated from nature. We are aware of air traffic above us from the sound of jet engines and contrail pollution but generally the birds migrating high above us remain invisible.  Projects like BirdCast and the UV night walks can offer us some compensating “expansion of experience”.

Birding or birdwatching has transitioned from a weird and unusual past-time to a mainstream activity over the last 100 years so, for example, looking at a BirdCast style online map showing which birds are migrating over your home, would not be a social challenge.  The awareness that could be created neighbour to neighbour or friend to friend – “have you seen what’s happening?” – could then lead into other activities.

* * *

Cuckooflower – a plant in time with it’s bird

In 1994 ,for Flora Brittanica, Richard Mabey collected reports of the Cuckoo calling and the first-flowering dates of the Cuckoo-flower, or Lady’s Smock blooming, from around Britain.  He found ‘the first full blooming of Cuckooflower was a fairly accurate predictor of the first hearing of the bird itself’.

All sections

1 – Introduction And Nature Ability

2 – Missing The Garden Opportunity

3 – Signalling and Marking Moments

4 – Nature Events in Popular Culture

5 – Why Conservation Should Embrace Natural History

6 – Organising Strategy and Ways And Means

7 – Afterword: Aren’t We Doing This Already?

Contact: chris@campaignstrategy.co.uk

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Culture and Nature – 4 – Nature Events In Popular Culture

Section 4 – Nature Events In Popular Culture

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There are many initiatives and traditions around the UK which are about nature or rely on it to happen.  These are places and times where people do things which, if encountered by people who become politicians, would say, on the basis that ‘actions speak louder than words’, that “nature is important to voters”.  But there are not enough, and some of those that exist, could do with help and promotion.  Here are a few examples:

Tenbury Wells – UK’s Mistletoe Capital

An example of local identity and cultural reinvention around a nature-based business

Article from Shropshire Star

Every year for the last 160 years the small Worcestershire town of Tenbury Wells has hosted the Holly and Mistletoe auctions (this year 26th November and 3rd December).

On 20 October 2005 an unapposed Early Day Motion in the House of Commons congratulated Tenbury Wells Mistletoe Enterprise for ‘the foundation of a national mistletoe day on 1st December each year’.  It had the support of eight Conservative, five Labour and four Liberal Democrat MPs and ‘wished the Enterprise well’ in continuing to maintain ‘the position of the area as the centre of the mistletoe trade’.

So although it was not a nature conservation proposition as such, it celebrated a cultural activity which would be impossible without nature.  A bit of local Natural Capital, which those 17 MPs engaged with. Tenbury takes that as an endorsement by Parliament.

Tenbury lies close to the borders with Shropshire and Herefordshire.  These counties, the Welsh Marches and the Severn Valley, are the UK centre of of Mistletoe, often growing on old trees in fruit orchards (but also Oak and a wide range of other trees).   Mistletoe was chosen by Herefordshire as its regional flower by public nomination, in the 2002 Plantlife County Flowers project, which has it’s own Wikipedia page

https://mistletoe.org.uk

Mistletoe has its own UK website run by Jonathan Briggs.

Prompted by fears the auctions would end when the livestock market site went up for sale,  Jonathan and four friends invented National Mistletoe Day and an annual ceremony to crown a Mistletoe Queen, to publicise the local Mistletoe culture in 2004/5.

Tenbury Mistletoe Association was set up in 2010 to help run an annual arts festival on the closest Saturday to National Mistletoe Day, the 1st of December. With disarming frankness, its website states:

 ‘… the Town has been developing its identity as the UK’s Mistletoe Capital. This is unique and provides the Town with a branding that stands out amongst the rest’.

On the Saturday closest to 1st December, National Mistletoe Day,  Tenbury on Wells holds a Mistletoe Festival and crowns the Queen.

Tenbury Mistletoe Association

Both Holly and Mistletoe have strong magical folklore associations, which is ultimately why we ‘bedeck the halls with boughs of Holly’, and kiss under the Mistletoe, at Midwinter and Christmas.  Mistletoe is a semi-parasite, growing on tree bark and getting its minerals from trees but making its own sugars from green leaves.  The Druids belived it powerful and its seeds are spread by berry-eating birds such as Mistle Thrushes, wiping their beaks on branches.  Richard Mabey writes in Flora Britannica that in Medieval times it seemed:

‘…  entirely magical – a plant without roots or obvious sources of food, that grew way above the earth and stayed green-leafed when other plants were bare.   It seemed the supreme example of spontaneous generation and continuing life.  

It is no wonder that it was credited with extraordinary powers … it was believed capable of breaking the death-like trances of epileptics, of dispelling tumours, divining treasure, keeping witches at bay, and protecting the crop of the trees on which it grew. And with its milk-white berries suggestively held between splayed leaves, it seemed ‘signed’ as a human potion and aphrodisiac too’.

Tenbury Mistletoe Association Facebook

Some local Mistletoe still appears at the Tenbury market alongside more that imported from France.

Plastic Mistletoe is now abundant in Supermarkets and ‘gift’ shops across Britain, appearing in Christmas decoration displays as early as late summer.

 

Mistletoe growing on a Willow tree full of thrushes, near Stroud – photo @Jamiewa50042387  on Twitter

Drummers, dancers and Druids frequent the Fesitival – here along the River Teme – photo Cheeky Monkey on facebook

 

Helping Toads Across Roads

An example of established volunteer-initiated and supported wildlife action

Road-kill is sadly the only way many people become aware of local wildlife such as Toads and Hedgehogs.  Helping a Toad across the road has become a visible community activity for nature, with people using torches and buckest to help them cross and in some cases building tunnels fo Toads, at hundreds of places in the UK.  In 1989 Tom Langton estimated there were 400 human-assisted road crossings in the UK, moving half a million Toads, Frogs or Newts. In 1995 71 Toad Patrols were found to have moved 20-40,000 Toads.

Toads are very committed to using Toad-traditional migrating routes to return to their ancestral ponds to breed each spring.  (They are less dependent on wet conditions than frogs and will over-winter clustered in groups in dry spots such as under a log or stone, they also walk rather than hop). As a result an estimated 20 tonnes of Toads get squashed by UK road traffic every year [a large toad is 80g so that’s 250,000 animals].

Seeing this early spring carnage, at some point someone started helping Toads across roads, and it became a voluntary community activity, accompanied first by home made and then official County Council road signs.

In 1999 Nottingham wildlife Trust member Margaret Cooper successfully campaigned for a Toad season temporary road closure at Oxton – here in 2015. 

 

In 2024 Margaret’s efforts to secure the now annual road closure at Beanford Lane, Oxton were recognized by the driver’s organisation, the AA

Signing roads and helping Toads makes nature visible to many more people but it also focuses close attention on changes in the the state of nature.  As Margaret Cooper she told the BBC this year, when the Oxton road closure started, she estimated 1,000 toads would cross there every month but “Now it’s no more than 100 or two”. A 2016 study using national Toad crossing data found numbers had declined by two thirds since the 1980s.  The reasons are being investigated but may include the direct and indirect effects of loss of habitats, and pesticides, as with Hedgehogs.  Toads live up to a mile from their breeding ponds so numbers migrating are a bellwether for wider conditions affecting nature.

Froglife’s Toad Crossing Network map shows where crossings are manned and where they need more volunteers

Hedgehog Crossings

Ian Mansfield’s London Visits blog reported in September 2024 that Kingston Council had become the first council in the country to install official hedgehog crossing road signs.

‘Over the past four years, Kingston Council has collaborated with the London Hogwatch Team, deploying wildlife cameras that helped confirm that there is a hedgehog hotspot in Old Malden. As a result, four new road signs have been unveiled’.  The cameras also picked up a Pine Marten.

Harleston Town’s Swift Culture

An example of a town deciding to make a nature moment celebration an annual event

Swifts migrate from Africa to the UK arriving at almost exactly the same time each year – where I live they usually appear in the first week of May, which was also the case back in 1923*. [* NNS Transcations 100 Years Ago, Bulletin of the Norfolk And Norwich Naturalists Society, May 2023, No. 161]

Knowing Swifts have been in steep decline and that one reason is traditional nest-holes being blocked up by building owners, a growing number of of people have put up tailor made Swift nest boxes and other nesting cavities, and then watch out for their return with anticipation.  Some places people have gone a step further than this has become part of the local culture, such as Harleston in Suffolk where people started putting out ‘Welcome Back’ flags.

Harleston, Suffolk 2015 – from the Harleston’s Future Facebook page

Swifts mobile made by children in Harleston Church

Harleston 2017 with Swift Boxes

Harleston 2024

Petersfield – Nature In A Commuter Town

An example of a small town with multiple enagement actions for nature

Mention Petersfield in Hampshire to most English people and they probably think of a conservative small London-commuter town but I think it thinks of itself more as a market Town.  And it’s also home to the Petersfield Climate Action Network, a community based NGO set up in 2020, which runs an almost bewildering variety of environmental and nature related projects.  Most of its founders met through involvement with Extinction Rebellion, and over Covid, decided to focus on things practical and near to home.

PeCAN’s activities include supporting ‘No Mow May’ and campaigns to encourage more wildflowers in roadside verges, making the Petersfield area carbon neutral as quickly as possible, schools outreach and an eco-cafe, mapping energy needs and usage and helping develop new sustainable housing, a home retrofit advice service, free thermal imaging of homes in winter, a winter Tree Festival, toy and present swaps, a project supplying subsidised fruit trees and growing advice so as to increase the blossom for insects, a Swift nest box scheme, and advice on wildlife gardening.

PeCAN write about roadside verges:

to make longer verges more diverse in their plant species to the benefit of insects, the mowed cuttings (arisings) must be removed and taken away to compost elsewhere. This requires (a) investment in new (actually old!) machinery that cuts and collects, and (b) a repository composting site. Other local authorities nearby – Basingstoke & Deane, Dorset and Sussex – appear to manage this and are proud of their achievement, so why cannot authorities in Hampshire, one of the wealthiest parts of the country, step up to this relatively straightforward challenge?

In conjunction with the Town Council PeCAN runs a July eco Fair which this year attracted over 1500 people.  Opened by the Town Crier and the Mayor, it included entertainment, photography and children’s writing competitions, and stalls covering travel (with bicycle repairs on offer, bikes for sale and EV owners to chat to), nature, energy and low waste living.

With support from East Hampshire District Council the Tree Council, and Network Rail volunteers (above) last winterPeCAN’s “A Fruit Tree In Every Garden’ project added 1,000 to the 950 it had already distributed, and planting for 2.7km of new hedging.

Over 120 Swift boxes have been put up in PeCAN’s Swift Streets project.  One woman persuaded 28 other householders in her street to take part.  PeCAN works on planning issues and engaging with local and regional decision makers including the District and Town Councils, South Downs National Park but is a truly street by street engagement operation.

One of its blogs reported:  ‘In May one six year old put a chalk notice outside their house about the danger to nature of spraying the road with chemicals. Neighbour after neighbour asked him to do the same outside their houses. Our road was not sprayed. Well done, Chester!’

 

PeCAN encourages people to put up ready-made signs asking their Council not to spray street flowers, or weed the area outside their house by hand so it does not ‘need’ spraying.  – Pesticide-free Petersfield Campaign

None of the PeCAN activities are remarkable in themselves but what is unusual is the density and variety of its mainly volunteer-driven work, and its very localised and public facing engagement.

In a town of 15,000 people and 39,000 including the surrounding “Petersphere” (as defined by local Shine Radio including villages), it directly engages 4 – 10% of the population, which is not bad for an organisation set up only four years ago.

 

The Golden Triangle of Wild Daffodils

 An example of volunteer action to restore nature in danger of losing its cultural authenticity

The Wild Daffodils which inspired Wordsworth are now a rare sight. Community led conservation projects are attempting to return Wild Daffodil populations to their former glory in England’s ‘Golden Triangle’.

Wild Daffodils in Kempley SSSI daffodil meadow in Gloucestershire

‘Golden Triangle’ is the name given to the area around Newent, Dymcock and Ledbury on the borders of Gloucestershire and Herefordshire.

‘in the 1930s, the Great Western Railway began running ‘Daffodil Specials’ from London, for the sake of weekend tourists who came to walk among the ‘golden-tides’ and to buy bunches at farm gates’ – Richard Mabey, Flora Britannica

The ‘Daffodil Line’ railway was closed in 1959 in the Beeching cuts but lives on as a community bus service which is a good way to get to see hosts of Wild Daffodils in the Golden Triangle.  Kempley village holds a Daffodil Festival in March.

https://daffodilline.co.uk

In his magnum opus of wild plant culture, Flora Britannica,  Mabey explains that the native Wild Daffodil ‘is now a rare plant across great stretches of England and Wales, a flower that people make pilgrimages to see in a ‘host’.  Yet in the late sixteenth century John Gerard regarded it as growing ‘almost everywhere’ in England and was ‘so well knowne to all that it needeth no description’’’.

In Germany the Wild Daffodil was the subject of a national ‘Flower of the Year’ awareness campaign for the protection of wildflowers in 1981. In the UK populations of Wild Daffodils now pale into insignificance compared to the tide of ornamental varieties planted (there are 26,000 varieties), including along roadsides. Hybridization with these usually much larger, gaudier, cultivated plants, threatens to wipe out the identity of the delicate ‘miniaturized’ Wild Daffodil. A single UK commercial grower produces 70m ornamental daffodils a year and non-wild daffodils grow in over 80% of UK gardens.

Some of the varieties of Daffodils but not the Wild Daffodil

Wild Daffodils are indicators of ancient woodland and old soils which escaped agricultural ‘improvement’.  The hedgerows, Forest of Dean woods and meadows of the Golden Triangle which hold Wild Daffodils are also famous for numbers of rare orchids, Wild Service Trees, Lily of the Valley and Herb Paris.  (Listen to a Richard Mabey radio programme about Wild Daffodils).

Wild Daffodils in the Forest of Dean – Dyfra

Chris Bligh and others in the community group Dyfra, Dymock Forest Rural Action have been working to protect, publicise and reinstate Wild Daffodils, and weed out threatening hybrids, since 1998.  They write:

Until the 1950s, the wild daffodil grew here in great profusion. The annual harvest brought in seasonal workers to help locals cut huge swathes of daffodils which were then distributed by rail along the Daffodil Line …  to the flower markets in Birmingham, Bristol and London. The wild daffodil no longer grows here so profusely due to its diminishing habitat, caused by the loss of ancient woodlands and orchards and changing agricultural practices, especially during and after the Second World War.

Dyfra volunteers remove hybrid Daffodils from Wild Daffodil populations still growing in Ancient Woodland.  

In the 2010s Dyfra volunteers hand-removed 30,000 cultivated Daffodils which originated from planting in the 1960s, to exploit the Mother’s Day market.

Dyfra’s work has included Wild Daffodil seed collection with assistance of 75 ‘Seed Guardians’ in local parishes, creating a glade of 600 native trees in place of a former Christmas Tree plantation on the Centenary of the Forestry Commission, school arts projects, new Daffodil paths, a ‘Cultural Continuum’ exhibition with local poets and path-makers, Daffodil meadow management, making new habitat corridors to connect local woodland, and collecting acorns of native Sessile Oaks to grow on for new plantings.

Volunteers with Dyfra creating a native tree glade in place of a Christmas Tree plantation, Forest of Dean

Collection of native Sessile Oak acorns by Dyfra

Chris Bligh (right) and team of volunteers spreading native flower and tree seed

Loading acorns [above photos from Dyfra website]

Cultivated Daffodils growing on a bank in the Golden Triangle village of Dymock (see below) – many times the size of the native Wild Daffodils which gave the area its name.

In Dymock village, Dyfra volunteers have worked with a local landowner to remove cultivated Daffodils from a road bank, opposite the pub. Chris Bligh explains:

“We are replacing them with wild ones which have just survived in grassland on the other side of the 1850s vintage estate fence.  The landowner has agreed to to allow a five metre buffer strip around the field under the fence – and plans a Sustainable Farming Incentive grass ley and a three-acre Conservation Orchard with the hope of a new Wild Daffodil field underneath the trees”.

Before work started in Dymock: the small Daffodils on the left side of the fence are the surviving natural Wild Daffodils – the large one on the right side are the cultivated ones.

Preparing the site in Dymock

Dymock  community volunteers clearing a bank from which cultivated daffodils have been removed, so it can be replanted with Wild Daffodils.

Pots to grow on Wild Daffodils from seed (Dyfra says: ‘ unlike  cultivated daffodils, the wild daffodils propagate from seed taking about 4 years to reach the flowering stage; they then flower again for another 2 or 3 years. It is therefore important not to cut the grass until the flowers have seeded and the seeds have matured – usually late June or early July’ .) [Above photos sequence – all Chris Bligh]

 

The Bugs Matter Survey

Example of an activity involving a cultural activity – driving – not fixed to place

Each year from May 1 to 30 September, the Kent Wildlife Trust and Buglife run a ‘Bugs Matter’ survey of insects, involving drivers.  Driving is part of daily life for many people, and taking part can give drivers anywhere, a sense of agency about nature. Using their cars or vans they check on the abundance of flying insects, by inspecting the ‘splats’ on their number plates.

Originally launched by the RSPB in 2003 when 40,000 drvers took part, the RSPB Splatometer project it used paper ‘Splatometers’ on number plates. (See more here).  It provides important data on the decline of insects.

The idea came to Phil Rothwell and other RSPB staff on a trip to see agrcultural areas in former Eastern europe after enlargement of the EU. As they drove East, they felt they were going back in time, as the car windscreen got more and more insects splatted on it.

This ‘folk memory’ resonated strongly with cyclists and drivers who remembered insect abundance from the 1960s.  As that memory fades the project might face ‘shifting baseline’ challenges but it connects to driving culture, and could involve drivers organisations such as the AA, ETA or RAC. It could also help people detect any recovery in insects, if it happens, for example through Rewilding (optimism is of course motivational).

Bugs Matter video

 

Fairyland Trust Events

A conservation group with an audience strategy based on entertainment culture

When we started the Fairyland Trust which uses plant and animal folklore, ‘making’ workshops, multiple learning styles and ‘magical days out’ to engage families with young children in nature, the existing cultural activity we targeted was not an attempt to engage people with ancient magical beliefs but engaging with the modern culture of a ‘family day out’.  We embedded nature learning as a benefit and reward but it was promoted as a day-out, not a green day or environment fair.  The “country fair” format is very old but also still socially recognizable as ‘normal’, hence the “Fairy Fairs”, begun in 2001.

Posters for the Fairy Fair and The Real Halloween in 2024

The motivational insight was that parents are desperate to entertain their 3 – 8 year olds at the weekend, and by 2001 many parents felt that there were only so many bouncy castles, plastic dinosaurs and traction engine rallies they could tolerate.

In the 1990s, we’d seen a growing fashion for Fairy Wings and things magical amongst festival goers, and then Harry Potter books were pubished from 1997 to 2007, so by 2001 witches, wizards and magic were ‘zeitgeist’ content.  Our events were designed to have something for all motivational values groups but especially Prospectors, so there was entertainment, shopping, a magical pub and performers as well as nature workshops.   We knew it was working when one dad said “you’ve invented an organic Disney” (as Disney said “first entertain”).

Graphic on plastic halloween costumes, shared online over a million times

To make the events as sustainable as possible we had started to eliminate plastic before 2010, when we added The Real Halloween (next one 26/7 October), as a more authentic nature-based counterpoint to the prevailing commercial shock and horror sugar fest model, with kids in polyester shop bought costumes.   Parents/ carers are encouraged to assemble their own costumes instead, and we hold a no-new plastic Fancy Dress Show.

Waiting to join the Parade of Animal Lanterns at The Real Halloween

Fairyland Trust workshops are designed for young children, for whom there is no barrier between imagined and real, but in recent years we found that when we took them to festivals, they were also popular with ‘20 somethings’ (Gen Z and Y).

They wanted something enjoyable, social, displayable and ‘different’ to do (such as making and wearing a Wildflower Crown) before going out raving. As a generation, they were already primed to be interested in ‘nature’ but mostly ignorant about it.

Over COVID lockdown our daughters and their friends invented an engagement mechanism designed specifically for their contemporaries, which they tested online.

That started as an “about me” type quiz ‘which wildflower are you?’.

It proved popular so they reasoned that once lockdowns ended, a real-world 3D version might be even more popular at festivals.  The result was the ‘Wild Flower Fortunes Caravan’.

 

The Wildflower Fortunes Caravan at Glastonbury Festival – the visitors are holding cards of their Wildflowers, divined by fortune telling. The moths shown on the two of 40 cards shown are the Flame Brocade Moth (foodplant, buttercup) and the Crimson Speckled Moth (foodplant Forgetmenot).  From the Caravan’s Instagram page.

Festival goers who discovered their ‘spirit wildflowers’ at Boomtown festival (2024). Almost all visitors said they knew almost nothing about wildflowers (including what a wildflower was) before their visit.  Afterwards many wanted to grow wildflowers at home.

***

Apologies to all those also running popular culture events in which nature plays an essential role, which I’ve not mentioned – I’d be interested to hear about them, if you’d like to get in touch. chris@campaignstrategy.co.uk

***

All sections

1 – Introduction And Nature Ability

2 – Missing The Garden Opportunity

3 – Signalling and Marking Moments

4 – Nature Events in Popular Culture

5 – Why Conservation Should Embrace Natural History

6 – Organising Strategy and Ways And Means

7 – Afterword: Aren’t We Doing This Already?

Contact: chris@campaignstrategy.co.uk

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